FCX US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $62.12 · 2026-11-11
Freeport-McMoRan is an American mining company. It produces molybdenum, copper, and gold from mines located in regions such as Indonesia. Source: Wikipedia
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 27 Oct 2026 and 23 Jul 2026
Management sounded upbeat, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
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Figures not yet filed
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 73% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Freeport-McMoRan expects copper sales to grow over 20% in 2027 compared to 2026 and gold volumes to increase over 50% in 2027, with further growth projected for 2028.
Valuation
Is Freeport-McMoRan undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 4.4% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $24.07 a share — the stock trades 158% above it. Today's price assumes 17.3% growth a year.
Current price
$62.12
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+17.3% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$24.07
Buy below
$18.05
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 158%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Sales +20% · from the Q3 2026 report: “FCX expects copper sales to grow over 20% in 2027 compared to 2026 and gold volumes to increase over 50% in 2027, with further volume growth projected for 2028.”
A guidance figure for sales, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
FCX expects copper sales to grow over 20% in 2027 compared to 2026 and gold volumes to increase over 50% in 2027, with further volume growth projected for 2028.
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Guidance
FCX maintained its 2026 full year net unit cash cost guidance of $1.90 because molybdenum byproducts offset the impact of higher input costs.
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Figure
Consolidated net income increased by over 80% compared with the year-ago quarter.
Source quote
“This contributed to an increase of over 80% in our consolidated net income compared with the year-ago quarter.”
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Guidance
The company targets overall rates of 80% by mid-27 and plans to approach full capacity by the end of next year.
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Key theme
Copper production is expected to increase from 700 million pounds this year to 1.2 billion pounds next year, which impacts how costs are reported in all-in unit costs starting in 2027.
Source quote
“But beginning in 2027 we don't expect to have those costs treated separately and they'll be in our all-in unit costs but of course with the rising volumes we've got a very significant increase in volumes going from 700 million pounds of copper this year to 1.2 next year.”
4 more
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Figure
The company is working to manage capital spend and the time schedule for a project estimated at $4.5 billion in current dollars despite uncertainty regarding future inflation.
Source quote
“So all those things are things that we're taking into account, and we don't know what the future of inflation will be, but in current dollars, we're drawing a circle around $4.5 billion, and we're going to work very hard to manage both the capital spend and the time schedule.”
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Guidance
Copper sales have increased in each of the last three quarters, and management expects fourth quarter sales to be the strongest of the year by far.
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Figure
Grassburg achieved a 67 percent ramp up this quarter, indicating progress toward full scale operations.
Source quote
“Steady progress continues at Grassburg with 67 percent ramp up achieved and confidence is building toward full scale.”
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Figure
2026 capital expenditure increased by 2% to approximately $4.4 billion, while 2027 spending rose by $400 million over the July estimate due to equipment investments and cost inflation.
Source quote
“Our 2026 capital expenditure is currently estimated to approximate $4.4 billion, a 2% increase from the prior estimate, and $5.2 billion for 2027, an increase of approximately $400 million above the July estimate, primarily reflecting additional mining equipment investments to support and enhance productivity improvements in the US and cost inflation.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Our financial position remains strong and as we look ahead, growing volumes combined with a positive market environment for our products sets us up for significant increase in cash flows...”
“We're driven to increase copper supply to a growing market and are strongly positioned as we look forward with significant near-term, medium-term, and long-term growth.”
“growth initiative as America's copper champion, we see a path for Freeport to be a four and a half to five billion pound a year copper producer in the 2030...”
Full figures
Q3 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.
Topics
Most discussed now
- Freeport-McMoRan will be discussing its team's work across its global business to build value, its solid progress and momentum...
- The progress achieved during 2026 sets us up for growing volumes and improving financial performance as Freeport-McMoRan looks ahead to...
- Be strategically significant to China as the world's largest consumer to support its domestic power grid, technology advancement, and…
- Strong operational execution combined with the favorable metal price backdrop provided significant margins, cash flows, and earnings.
- Freeport-McMoRan's team remains focused on delivering its plans safely and efficiently, which will translate a strong financial performance…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Freeport-McMoRan did have some lower grades in 2028 compared to the to the prior estimate But in terms of the...
- Dropped Even after Freeport-McMoRan goes through the NOLs the effective tax rate in The US is substantially lower than it is...
- Dropped The next step would be to get it put into the treasury regulations that would allow for copper to conform...
- Fading Freeport-McMoRan's large scale, long live production with its attractive growth pipeline positions Freeport exceptionally well, its…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Freeport reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $1.174 billion, compared to $674 million in the third quarter of 2025.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Freeport-McMoRan reported third-quarter 2026 copper production of approximately 830 million pounds and gold production of approximately 230 thousand ounces.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
PT Freeport Indonesia amended its $1.75 billion revolving credit facility, extending the maturity date from November 2028 to September 2031, with $250 million in borrowings outstanding as of September 1, 2026.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. issued its second-quarter and six-month 2026 financial and operating results on July 23, 2026.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. entered into a new five-year, $3.0 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility maturing in May 2031, replacing a prior $3.0 billion facility that was scheduled to mature in October 2027.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Freeport-McMoRan reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $881 million, up from $352 million in the first quarter of 2025.
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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fourth quarter
sales
Source quote
“Copper sales have increased in each of the last three quarters and we expect fourth quarter sales to be the strongest of the year by far.”
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during 2026
progress for growing volumes and improving financial performance
Source quote
“The progress achieved during 2026 sets us up for growing volumes and improving financial performance as we look ahead to 2027 and 2028.”
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as we go through 2027
deployment of high potential next generation proprietary additives
Source quote
“Data from our work today is supportive of a potential breakthrough and we are looking forward to what we'll learn as we go through 2027 as high potential next generation proprietary additives are deployed in the field.”
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as we go into 2027
progress for meaningful growth at the Grasberg Lock Cave
Source quote
“We operated at 67% of mine capacity during the third quarter and progress is advancing for meaningful growth as we go into 2027.”
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in 2027
restart of production block 1 south
Source quote
“Upgrades to the material handling system for our automated rail system are progressing on schedule, and we continue to advance work for a restart of production block 1 south in 2027.”