CMI US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
Cummins (CMI) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $463.26 · 2026-11-11
Cummins manufactures and sells diesel, natural gas, and gasoline engines, as well as hybrid and electric powertrains and power generation systems. The company provides components such as turbochargers, fuel systems, and transmissions to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and other customers globally. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-10)
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 4 Aug 2026 and 5 May 2026
Net income up 42.4% on the previous quarter. Management sounded upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
+42.4%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 968.0M vs 680.0M
Revenue +12.6%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is +4.3% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 82% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, but clearly less so than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Cummins increased its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 10% to 13% from the previous projection of 8% to 11%.
Valuation
Is Cummins undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 6.2% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $176.55 a share — the stock trades 162% above it. Today's price assumes 18.7% growth a year.
Current price
$463.26
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+18.7% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$176.55
Buy below
$132.41
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 162%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Revenue +9.5% · from the Q2 2026 report: “CMI increased its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 10% to 13% from the previous projection of 8% to 11%.”
A guidance figure for revenue, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
CMI increased its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 10% to 13% from the previous projection of 8% to 11%.
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Key theme
The company raised its 2026 Engine business revenue growth projection to 9% to 14% from a prior guide of 7% to 12% due to higher expectations for North American trucks.
Source quote
“In 2026, we project revenues for the Engine business to be up 9% to 14%, up from our prior guide of 7% to 12%, driven primarily by higher expectations for North America heavy and medium-duty truck.”
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Figure
CMI announced plans to expand global capacity and develop 130-liter natural gas gensets to reach the growing prime power market in response to increased data center investments.
Source quote
“In response to growing global investments in data centers, we also announced plans to further expand our global capacity and broaden our power generation portfolio with integrated power solutions and the development of 130-liter natural gas genset, extending our reach into the growing prime power market.”
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Figure
CMI plans to begin limited production of the model year 2027 X15 engine in January 2027 as part of a phased transition based on individual OEM launch plans.
Source quote
“As a part of our phased transition, we plan to begin limited production of the model year 2027 X15 engine in January 2027 based on individual OEM launch plans.”
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Figure
CMI delivered record second quarter sales of $9.5 billion, which is an increase of 9% compared to the second quarter of 2025.
Source quote
“We delivered record second quarter sales of $9.5 billion, an increase of 9% compared to the second quarter of 2025.”
3 more
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Figure
Capital investments will be in the range of $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion to support future growth.
Source quote
“Capital investments will be in the range of $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion as we continue to make critical investments to support future growth.”
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Guidance
The company expects the strong gross margin performance to continue into the next period.
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Guidance
CMI expects to be appropriately compensated for the value provided when launching new products.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 87% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“In summary, we delivered a strong quarter supported by continued growth in demand for power generation equipment, improving North America truck markets and growth in China in most end markets,...”
“In the Power Systems segment, revenues were a record $2.3 billion, an increase of 19% and EBITDA increased from 22.8% to 24.5% of sales, primarily driven by strong global power...”
“Industry demand for medium- and heavy-duty trucks in China was 378,000 units, an increase of 24% from last year, driven by strong export demand, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.46B | 8.40B | +12.6% | 8.64B | +9.4% |
| Gross profit | 2.46B | 2.24B | +9.9% | 2.28B | +8.1% |
| Operating income | 1.28B | 949.0M | +34.8% | 1.23B | +4.3% |
| Net income | 968.0M | 680.0M | +42.4% | 928.0M | +4.3% |
| EPS | 6.73 | 4.71 | +42.9% | 6.43 | +4.7% |
| P/E today 18.8 | 36.5 | 27.9 | +8.6 | 15.4 | +21.1 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- EBITDA was 13.2%, a decrease from 14.7% a year ago as higher product coverage costs were partially offset by stronger...
- Cummins recently signed a multiyear agreement with a global hyperscaler, expanding a long-standing partnership and securing visibility into…
- Cummins delivered record quarterly sales and EBITDA dollars and strong operating cash flow in the second quarter, extending its track...
- Cummins' current warranty costs are running in the low 2% of sales range across the entire company, pretty much at...
- Typically, when Cummins launches a new platform of which it will be launching several between '27 and '28, those come with...
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading Lower North American truck volumes and higher compensation expenses partially offset by higher power generation demand, favorable pricing…
- Fading Cummins has been through a peak investment period because all the platforms, not just the current ones, it has launched other platforms...
- Dropped This pilot represents Cummins' first retrofit of a 300-ton Komatsu haul truck using First Mode hybrid technology in daily operations.
- Fading I don't want to diminish the extraordinary achievements of the Power Systems business into a really short answer because they're...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Cummins reported second-quarter 2026 revenues of $9.5 billion, up 9% from the same period in 2025, with net income of $932 million compared to $890 million a year earlier.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Cummins reported first-quarter 2026 revenues of $8.4 billion, up 3% from the same period in 2025, with a net income of $654 million and diluted EPS of $4.71.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Cummins reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenues of $8.5 billion, up 1% from the same quarter in 2024, with a net income of $593 million compared to $418 million a year earlier.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Cummins reported third-quarter revenues of $8.3 billion, down 2% from the same period in 2024, with a net income of $536 million compared to $809 million a year earlier.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Cummins reported second-quarter revenues of $8.6 billion, down 2% from the same period in 2024, with net income of $890 million compared to $726 million a year ago.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Cummins Inc. elected Matthew Tsien as an independent director to serve on several committees starting July 14, 2025, following the company's 2024 sales of $34.1 billion.
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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January 2027
begin limited production of the model year 2027 X15 engine
Source quote
“As a part of our phased transition, we plan to begin limited production of the model year 2027 X15 engine in January 2027 based on individual OEM launch plans.”
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fourth quarter of 2027
full production expected to begin for the model year 2027 X15 engine
Source quote
“With production ramping progressively and full production expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2027.”
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January 2027
begin limited production of the model year 2027 X10
Source quote
“We also plan to begin limited production of the model year 2027 X10 in January 2027, with full production expected by the third quarter of 2027 based on OEM launch plans.”
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all of 2027
current B platform will be available
Source quote
“Consistent with our previous announcement, our next-generation B platform is expected to launch in January 2028, and the current B platform will be available for all of 2027.”
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2026
total company revenues to increase 10% to 13%
Source quote
“We now expect total company revenues to increase 10% to 13% in 2026 compared to our prior guidance of 8% to 11%.”