DOV US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Dover Corporation (DOV) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $212.43 · 2026-11-11
Dover Corporation is a global manufacturer and solutions provider of equipment, components, and software for the automotive, aerospace, industrial, and energy markets. The company serves customers in sectors including manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage. It operates across five segments including engineered products, clean energy, imaging, pumps, and climate technologies. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-13)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 22 Oct 2026 and 23 Jul 2026
Net income up 6.8% on the previous quarter. Management sounded upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
+6.8%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 333.3M vs 312.2M
Revenue +2.0%
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 76% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, but clearly less so than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Dover Corporation narrowed its full-year guidance to organic growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted EPS of $10.60 to $10.75 per share.
Valuation
Is Dover Corporation undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 1.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $67.40 a share — the stock trades 215% above it. Today's price assumes 13.1% growth a year.
Current price
$212.43
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+13.1% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$67.40
Buy below
$50.55
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
EPS +5.5% · from the Q3 2026 report: “DOV narrowed its full-year guidance to organic growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted EPS of $10.60 to $10.75 per share to reflect double-digit growth consistent with…”
A guidance figure for eps, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
DOV narrowed its full-year guidance to organic growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted EPS of $10.60 to $10.75 per share to reflect double-digit growth consistent with its long-term algorithm.
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Guidance
Full-year free cash flow guidance remains on track at 14% to 16% of revenue.
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Figure
Secular growth markets now represent over 25% of total revenue, up from 18% in 2024, indicating an expansion in the company's primary growth segments.
Source quote
“Our secular growth markets now represent over 25% of our total revenue, up from 18% in 2024.”
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Figure
Climate and sustainability technology grew at an 18% organic rate during the quarter.
Source quote
“Climate and sustainability technology accelerated to 18% organic growth in the quarter.”
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Guidance
The company guided full-year CAPEX of $200 to $220 million for capacity and productivity projects intended to deliver attractive returns into next year.
2 more
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Figure
Demand is running ahead of capacity, leading the company to expand capacity with additional output coming online in the first quarter of 2027.
Source quote
“Demand is running ahead of capacity. We're actively expanding that capacity with additional output coming online in the first quarter of 2027.”
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Figure
The company reported over $3 billion of tri-powder at quarter end, providing flexibility for offensive capital allocation and a near-term bias toward returning capital to shareholders.
Source quote
“With over $3 billion of tri-powder at quarter end, we have the ample flexibility to play offensive capital allocation and a near-term bias towards returning capital to shareholders.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 84% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“It allows us to pursue a variety of high-growth business opportunities across a range of secular themes, with several of our businesses participating in more than one.”
“Organic growth accelerated to 7%, led by our secular growth markets and supported by durable demand across the majority of the portfolio.”
“Shipments and order rates in braze plate heat exchanges remain robust across all geographies and major end markets with notable strength in liquid cooling for data centers, which is initially...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.23B | 2.19B | +2.0% | 2.08B | +7.5% |
| Gross profit | 903.4M | 880.6M | +2.6% | 833.6M | +8.4% |
| Operating income | 419.2M | 391.8M | +7.0% | 377.2M | +11.1% |
| Net income | 333.3M | 312.2M | +6.8% | 302.0M | +10.4% |
| EPS | 2.47 | 2.30 | +7.4% | 2.19 | +12.8% |
| P/E today 23.7 | 21.8 | 27.0 | −5.2 | 10.3 | +11.5 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New It's actually very little people in the process, and so it's a very highly engineered, probably one of the most...
- Across the top of the slide, Dover shows its expected growth rates in each of these markets this year.
- Free cash flow accelerated in the third quarter, consistent with historical trends, and Dover expects a further...
- Year-to-date, free cash flow was $703 million, or 11% of revenue, up $72 million over the prior year, driven primarily...
- Leash Dung, which Dover signed and expect to close in the fourth quarter, gives its clean energy segment a low-cost,...
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading With book-to-bill at 1.06, extending strong order momentum of recent quarters and improving Dover's visibility into the second half of...
- Fading This improvement was primarily driven by operating cash conversion on year over year earnings growth, which more than offset working...
- Fading Where in many cases demand is outpacing supply and extending lead times and Dover is actively expanding capacity in those...
- Fading Dover is seeing particular strength in the areas it has highlighted as secular growth priorities, aerospace and defense, components for...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Dover reported revenue of $2.054 billion for the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 10% compared to $1.866 billion in the same period of the previous year.
- Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
Dover Corporation entered into a $1.5 billion five-year unsecured revolving credit facility on April 2, 2026, replacing an existing $1 billion credit facility.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Dover reported 2025 annual revenue of $8.093 billion, up 4% from $7.746 billion in 2024, with adjusted earnings from continuing operations increasing 15% to $1.324 billion.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Dover Corporation completed an offering of €550,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 3.500% Notes due 2033 on November 12, 2025.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-27.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$739.1M
2021-09-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -2.2% YoY, -0.4% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 137.3M |
| Q2 2025 | 137.2M |
| Q3 2025 | 137.2M |
| Q1 2026 | 135.0M |
| Q2 2026 | 134.8M |
| Q3 2026 | 134.2M |
Shares outstanding: 133.0M (2026-10-16)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. 30 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
86.8K shares
$20.0M · 5 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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November 12th
availability of an audio version of the call
Source quote
“An audio version of this call will be available on our website through November 12th, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days.”
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2027
expected trend of growth in secular markets
Source quote
“In total, these markets are material driver of our overall revenue growth in 2026, and we expect that trend to continue in 2027.”
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2026
investment in additional capacity
Source quote
“We have continued to invest in additional capacity in 2026 behind this demand strength, some of which we will detail in a subsequent slide.”
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2027
shipping of roughly half of the backlog
Source quote
“Importantly, our backlog is 35% higher than it was at this point last year and is up sequentially from Q2 with roughly half scheduled to ship in 2027.”
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first quarter of 2027
additional output coming online
Source quote
“We're actively expanding that capacity with additional output coming online in the first quarter of 2027.”