AGO US Russell 1000 Earnings call
Assured Guaranty (AGO) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $73.61 · 2026-11-11
Assured Guaranty is a Bermuda-based holding company that provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the U.S., United Kingdom, and other regions. The company offers financial guaranty insurance and specialty insurance to issuers, underwriters, and investors, and it also participates in the asset management business. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-27)
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 7 Aug 2026 and 8 May 2026
Net income down 55.7% on the previous quarter. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
−55.7%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 39.0M vs 88.0M
Revenue −25.3%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is −62.1%, so it is not just seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 74% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Assured Guaranty closed $152 million of PVP in the first half of 2026, a 48% increase compared to $103 million in the first half of last year.
Valuation
Is Assured Guaranty undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $258.21 a share — the stock trades 71% below it. Today's price assumes −8.1% growth a year.
Current price
$73.61
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
-8.1% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$258.21
Buy below
$193.66
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 71%
Price vs buy-below price
Undervalued 62%
Read between the lines
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Figure
Quarter 2026 adjusted operating income reached $55 million or $1.23 per share, an increase of 22% over the adjusted operating income per share in the second quarter of last year.
Source quote
“I am pleased to report second quarter 2026 adjusted operating income of $55 million or $1.23 per share, which represents an increase of 22% over adjusted operating income per share in the second quarter of last year.”
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Figure
New business production generated $152 million of PVP in the first half, which is nearly 50% higher than the first half of 2025 due to activity in U.S. and global finance.
Source quote
“Our new business production continued to deliver solid results, generating $152 million of PVP in the first half, nearly 50% higher than in the first half of 2025, led by our activity in U.S. public finance and global structured finance.”
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Guidance
S&P, KBRA, and Moody's affirmed the financial strength ratings of the company's financial guarantee insurance subsidiaries with stable outlooks.
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Figure
Assured Guaranty closed $152 million of PVP in the first half of 2026, a 48% increase compared to $103 million in the first half of last year.
Source quote
“Assured Guaranty closed $152 million of PVP in the first half of 2026 compared with $103 million of PVP in the first half of last year, a 48% increase.”
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Figure
The alternative investment portfolio maintained an inception-to-date IRR of approximately 12%, which is significantly higher than the 4.3% three-year average yield on the fixed maturity portfolio.
Source quote
“Despite this quarter's market movements, we still have an inception-to-date IRR of approximately 12% on the alternative investment portfolio, which is significantly higher than the 3-year average yield on our fixed maturity portfolio of 4.3%.”
3 more
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Key theme
AGO is allocating less capital for share repurchases to fund growth strategies that the company believes will yield opportunities and returns for shareholders in the future.
Source quote
“So when we look at the pool of capital that's getting released today, we're now saying, gee, yes, it's less available for share repurchases because we are putting it into our growth strategies that we have, and we think those growth strategies will yield really good opportunities for our shareholders, good returns in the future.”
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Figure
Loss expense decreased from $28 million in the second quarter of 2025 to $4 million in the second quarter of this year.
Source quote
“Loss expense was down from $28 million in the second quarter of 2025 to $4 million in the second quarter of this year.”
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Figure
Ultimately, as I mentioned, Assured Guaranty still has a 12% IRR for alternative investments and it remains confident in the strategy.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“The largest driver of economic loss development in the second quarter of this year was the Brightline transaction, which did not impact adjusted operating income because expected losses have not...”
“We believe opportunities in Europe and the Asia Pacific regions will underpin that growth as a complement to our robust U.S.”
“We continue to look to expand the application of our products into various new sectors and geographic markets, develop additional product applications and add new counterparty relationships all in line...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 195.0M | 261.0M | −25.3% | 281.0M | −30.6% |
| Operating income | 49.0M | 65.0M | −24.6% | 133.0M | −63.2% |
| Net income | 39.0M | 88.0M | −55.7% | 103.0M | −62.1% |
| EPS | 0.88 | 1.91 | −53.9% | 2.08 | −57.7% |
| P/E today 10.4 | 10.7 | 9.3 | +1.4 | 9.6 | +1.1 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New That's just call it, it's not even mathematical, just it's binary, Assured Guaranty is making claim payments or are not making claim...
- Net earned premiums increased due to both higher refundings and higher scheduled net earned premiums, which are primarily attributable to...
- Loss expense that emerges in the income statement in any given period is a function of the amount of deferred...
- They have less of some of the AI software risk than some of the other CLOs that you see in...
- To its new annuity reinsurance business, Assured Guaranty remains focused on further growing its financial guarantee business abroad…
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading Assured Guaranty's guaranty can expand the supply of high-quality bonds and in certain cases, reduce the borrowing costs and support the...
- Dropped Most importantly, you've seen the activity in the secondary market where Assured Guaranty continues to push those numbers up significantly…
- Fading Assured Guaranty made good progress integrating its staff with experienced employees already employed by Assured Life Re.
- Fading This interest demonstrates that institutions are increasingly acknowledging the benefits Assured Guaranty's insurance provides, including…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Assured Guaranty Ltd. filed a Regulation FD disclosure on August 7, 2026, regarding information made available in the Investor Information Center.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported net income of $39 million for the second quarter of 2026, compared to $103 million in the same period of 2025.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Assured Guaranty Ltd. filed a Regulation FD disclosure on May 8, 2026, regarding its investor information section.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported net income of $88 million for the first quarter of 2026, compared to $176 million in the first quarter of 2025.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The company filed the December 31, 2025, consolidated financial statements for Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd. and Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-12.
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -9.4% YoY, -1.3% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 52.4M |
| Q1 2025 | 50.0M |
| Q2 2025 | 48.9M |
| Q3 2025 | 47.4M |
| Q1 2026 | 44.9M |
| Q2 2026 | 44.3M |
Shares outstanding: 44.0M (2026-08-05)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 53 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
236.8K shares
$18.3M · 14 transactions
Bought by insiders
452.1K shares
$11.2M · 2 transactions
Net direction
net buying
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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third quarter of 2026
start with a promising pipeline
Source quote
“Further, we are off to a great start in the third quarter of 2026 with a promising pipeline ahead.”
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third quarter
issued policies or commitments on a number of large U.S. public finance transactions, a primary market European toll road and several structured finance transactions
Source quote
“At this point, during the third quarter, we have issued policies or commitments on a number of large U.S. public finance transactions, a primary market European toll road and several structured finance transactions, including 2 transactions with a new counterparty.”
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next quarter
reversing some of it
Source quote
“Most marks or at least some marks will have the ability to reverse and we've seen already activity in the large one that we took the loss in this quarter already reversing in next quarter because we book it on a quarter lag for reversing some of it.”
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until 2042
interest payments for Brightline
Source quote
“And all we're going to have to do is make interest payments until 2042.”