AES US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
AES Corporation (AES) · Q3 2025 results and valuation
Share price: $14.92 · 2026-11-11
AES Corporation is a utility and power generation company that owns and operates power plants. It generates and sells electricity to end users, utilities, and industrial facilities across 15 countries. Source: Wikipedia
Results Q3 2025 vs Q2 2025 · previous quarter · published 5 Nov 2025 and 1 Aug 2025
Net income turned to a profit from a loss last quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
Turned profit
Net income vs Q2 2025
Outlook given
Net income 639.0M vs -95.0M
Revenue +17.4%
Why Against the same quarter last year (+26.8%), net income rose primarily due to a 46% increase in renewables EBITDA from new projects coming online, cost reductions, and higher adjusted pretax contribution from rate base investments, partially offset by higher depreciation, interest expense, and lower tax attribute recognition.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 64% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
AES Ohio secured 2.1 gigawatts of signed data center agreements with more expected, highlighting a key growth area for AES.
Valuation
Is AES Corporation undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −1.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $15.98 a share — the stock trades 7% below it. Today's price assumes −2.2% growth a year.
Current price
$14.92
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
-2.2% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$15.98
Buy below
$11.98
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 7%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 24%
Read between the lines
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Figure
The Renewables segment grew 46% this year and is expected to reach 50% by year-end, signaling an inflection point for the company's EBITDA.
Source quote
“On top of all that, our EBITDA has reached an inflection point, as you can see with the Renewables segment, which has already grown 46% this year, it will likely be around 50% by the end of the year.”
-
Figure
Renewables EBITDA increased 46% year-to-date because of organic growth from new projects and the maturing of U.S. renewables businesses.
Source quote
“We have seen a 46% increase in our renewables EBITDA year-to-date, driven primarily from the organic growth of new projects coming online and the maturing of our U.S. renewables businesses.”
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Figure
The settlement includes an annual revenue increase of approximately $168 million and an ROE of nearly 10%.
-
Figure
AES has 4.2 gigawatts in operation and 4 gigawatts in its backlog out of a total of 8.2 gigawatts.
Source quote
“Of 8.2 gigawatts, 4.2 gigawatts are in operation and 4 gigawatts are in our backlog.”
-
Figure
AES realized the majority of $150 million in cost savings for this year and is on track for a $300 million annual run rate in 2026.
Source quote
“We have already realized the majority of the $150 million in cost savings for this year, and we are on track to achieve a $300 million annual run rate in 2026.”
2 more
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Guidance
The company expressed high confidence in its full-year revenue range of $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion.
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Guidance
AES expects its growth rate to increase to the low teens next year as part of a step-up over the next 2 years.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2025. Ring: Q2 2025.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Growth in the year to go will be primarily driven by the continued strong increase in contributions from new renewables projects, rate base investment in our U.S.”
“In summary, we've demonstrated the high growth of our renewables and utilities businesses and our excellent track record of completing projects on time and on budget.”
“But that market was a bit tough in the sense that with the uncertainty that they were in the market, the sales of new services were lower.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2025-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2025period end 2025-09-30 | Q2 2025period end 2025-06-30 | Change | Q3 2024 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.35B | 2.85B | +17.4% | 3.29B | +1.9% |
| Gross profit | 735.0M | 453.0M | +62.3% | 722.0M | +1.8% |
| Net income | 639.0M | -95.0M | Turned profit | 504.0M | +26.8% |
| EPS | 0.89 | -0.15 | Turned profit | 0.71 | +25.4% |
| P/E today 6.0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | +0.8 | 12.8 | −3.8 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- I am pleased to reaffirm AES's full year 2025 guidance and long-term growth rates, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS...
- AES remains fully on track with its credit ratings and have received credit opinions from all 3 major agencies confirming...
- Utilities, and continued progress on AES's cost savings program announced on the fourth quarter call.
- AES's strong growth was primarily driven by the 3 gigawatts of new capacity brought online since Q3 2024.
- As a diversified power company, AES is well positioned to deliver the technology and solutions its customers need, whether through...
Faded since Q2 2025
- Fading These are the technologies that can be feasibly built, given their shorter time to power, advanced development pipeline existing supply...
- Fading It's important to keep in mind key market fundamentals.
- Fading To the EBITDA growth drivers, also increased as a result of $185 million of higher U.S.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
The AES Corporation received unconditional approval from the European Commission and a declaratory ruling from the New York Public Service Commission regarding its merger with Horizon Merger Sub, Inc.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio issued an order approving the merger between The AES Corporation and Horizon Merger Sub, Inc. on September 17, 2026.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Bernerd Da Santos resigned as Chairman of the AES Clean Energy Board and Senior Strategic Advisor on September 14, 2026, to join Fluence Energy, Inc. as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
The AES Corporation received CFIUS Approval on August 27, 2026, as a condition for the merger with Horizon Merger Sub, Inc. to be jointly owned by Global Infrastructure Management and EQT Infrastructure.
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
The AES Corporation entered into amendments extending the termination dates of revolving commitments under the Citi Credit Agreement to August 23, 2028, and the SMBC Credit Agreement to December 6, 2027.
- Auditor change · SEC 8-K
The AES Corporation dismissed Ernst & Young LLP as its independent registered public accounting firm on July 21, 2026, due to a loss of independence following a merger agreement.
- Shareholder vote results; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
AES stockholders approved the acquisition by a consortium for $15.00 per share, representing an equity value of approximately $10.7 billion and an enterprise value of approximately $33.4 billion.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-11-08.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$1.97B
2026-09-30
Short-term investments
$54.0M
total $2.03B
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: +0.1% YoY, +0.0% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 711.0M |
| Q2 2025 | 712.0M |
| Q3 2025 | 712.0M |
| Q1 2026 | 713.0M |
| Q2 2026 | 713.0M |
| Q3 2026 | 713.0M |
Shares outstanding: 713.6M (2026-10-30)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. 31 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
10.1M shares
$211.4M · 1 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling