AER US Earnings call
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $177.01 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 29 Jul 2026 and 29 Apr 2026
Net income down 11.3% on the previous quarter, guidance raised. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
−11.3%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Guidance raised
Net income 725.7M vs 818.1M
Revenue −3.3%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is −42.4%, so it is not just seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 63% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Key theme
Net maintenance contribution was $131 and maintenance revenue remained elevated at $177 million, making it the quarter's key theme.
Valuation
Is AerCap Holdings N.V. undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
The projected cash flow doesn't cover the debt, so the price is far above the model's fair value.
Current price
$177.01
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+17.6% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$-59.47
Buy below
$-44.60
Price vs fair value
n/a
Price vs buy-below price
n/a
Read between the lines
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Guidance ↑
Reflecting its strong first half performance, and positive outlook for the business, AerCap is raising its full-year earnings guidance to $16.80 per share, not including any additional gains…
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Guidance ↑
Today, AerCap has once again raised its EPS guidance.
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Figure
AER completed $1.4 billion of asset sales during the quarter, generating a 20% gain-on-sale margin that boosted revenue.
Source quote
“We also completed $1.4 billion of asset sales during the quarter, generating a gain-on-sale margin of 20%.”
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Dropped
There's no doubt, though, that over a period of time for the Middle Eastern carriers but I would never write…
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“We are increasing our estimated EPS excluding gains on sale to approximately $14 and we are also including the $2.80 of gains on sale from the first half of the...”
“And we expect to see an increase in retirement activity among the oldest and least fuel-efficient aircraft.”
“Recent geopolitical challenges have led to higher input costs for airlines and will no doubt put further pressure on airline margins this year.”
Full figures
USD · ROIC.AI fundamentals (NYSE:AER, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.17B | 2.24B | −3.3% | 1.89B | +14.9% |
| Gross profit | 907.1M | 1.03B | −11.5% | — | |
| Operating income | 777.7M | 899.1M | −13.5% | — | |
| Net income | 725.7M | 818.1M | −11.3% | 1.26B | −42.4% |
| EPS | 4.65 | 5.06 | −8.1% | 7.09 | −34.4% |
| P/E today 6.7 | — | — | — | 7.3 | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New Should grid capacity expand materially, or alternative technologies improve, demand for aeroderivatives could be adversely affected.
- This strong cash generation continues to create significant financial flexibility enabling us to invest in long-term accretive…
- The ability to execute transactions like that comes back to AerCap's unique capabilities.
- From AerCap's perspective, pursuing this opportunity would require strong strategic partners and access to the full suite of capabilities…
- The risks AerCap is assessing include operational performance, future costs and alternative power supply solutions.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading The company generated GAAP net income of $818 million or $4.96 per share, and record adjusted net income of $889...
- Fading AerCap's continued investment in new technology assets, including the 110 aircraft added to its backlog in the first quarter, reflects...
- Fading There's guys who are property developers, that build data centers and then try and...
- Dropped Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated April 29…