American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) · Q4 2026 results and valuation

At 3.6% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $18.10 a share — the stock trades 19% above it. Today's price assumes 6.1% growth a year.

1. Figure

   Consolidated revenue of $1.8 billion increased 10% versus last year fueled by 8% comparable sales growth, beating margin and profitability expectations and accelerating from the prior quarter.

   Source quote

   “In the quarter, consolidated revenue of $1.8 billion increased 10% to last year, fueled by comparable sales growth of 8%... Our strong performance in the fourth quarter is a testament to this work with results coming in ahead of expectations across margins and profitability. We saw across-the-board improvement in trends with an acceleration from the prior quarter.”

2. Guidance

   AEO expects similar next-year CapEx of $250 million to $260 million for technology upgrades.

   Source quote

   “As we look ahead to next year, we expect similar levels of CapEx in the range of $250 million to $260 million, reflecting investments in technology upgrades, general...”

3. Guidance

   AEO issued guidance for first quarter comparable sales growth in the high single digits and American Eagle comps in the positive low single digits, indicating management expects continued growth.

   Source quote

   “For the first quarter, we expect comparable sales growth in the high single digits, with American Eagle comps in the positive low single digits and Aerie OFFLINE comps...”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Gross margin declined 30 basis points to 37% from 37.3% last year, which included net tariff pressure of approximately $50 million.”

“Just noticing that if you go from 4Q '24 to 1Q '25, the sequential comparable gets 3 points easier, but the low single digit sort of implies that on a...”

“AE was down slightly, kind of low single and Aerie was up in the mid-single digits.”