btlines

AA NYSE Russell 1000 Earnings call

Alcoa Corp (AA) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

Share price: $41.04 · 2026-11-11

Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 16 Jul 2026 and 16 Apr 2026

Net income down 4.2% on the previous quarter, guidance raised. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.

Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.

1 · Numbers

−4.2%

Net income vs Q1 2026

Guidance raised

Net income 407.0M vs 425.0M

Revenue +24.2%

2 · How management spoke

Typical

Less upbeat than 65% of company calls

Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.

Similar to last call.

3 · What stood out

Figure

AA this quarter explained its rationale for a mix of $3.1 billion cash and $1 billion equity considerations.

Valuation

Is Alcoa Corp undervalued?

Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.

At 1.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $22.24 a share — the stock trades 85% above it. Today's price assumes 8.4% growth a year.

Current price

$41.04

close of 2026-11-11

Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.

+8.4% for 10 yrs

Fair value / share

$22.24

Buy below

$16.68

Price vs fair value

Overvalued 85%

Price vs buy-below price

Overvalued 146%

Official channels

The company's own website and social media accounts.

Read between the lines

  1. Guidance ↑

    Corporate expenses now expected to hit roughly $180 million this year because of currency impacts and strategic project costs.

    Source quote
    “We are increasing our full year outlook for other corporate expenses to approximately $180 million primarily reflecting unfavorable currency impacts and costs related to certain strategic initiatives.”
  2. Guidance

    Acquisition expected to boost earnings per share and cash flow right after closing.

    Source quote
    “We expect the acquisition to be accretive to our earnings per share and cash flow metrics immediately after close.”
  3. Fading

    Less focus on Middle East and vessel loading issues, yet Alumina revenue still fell 7% on lower shipments and weaker prices.

    Source quote
    “In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased 33% due to typically lower first-quarter shipments, lower purchased and resold alumina to satisfy... Revenue decreased 7% sequentially to $3.2 billion. Realized prices were also lower for both alumina and bauxite.”
  4. Fading

    Less mention of stakeholder collaboration this quarter, but Western Australia mine approvals still expected by year-end 2026.

    Source quote
    “In Western Australia, we advanced our mine approvals, completing responses from the public comment period and continuing to work collaboratively... Strategically, we kept moving forward. We continue to anticipate ministerial approvals by year-end 2026, consistent with the timeline we have previously shared.”

Tone

How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.

Prepared remarks Typical (was restrained)
Answers to analysts Restrained (was restrained)

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone
“We are proud of what we accomplished in the second quarter, excited about the opportunities ahead, and confident in our ability to deliver value for our shareholders.”
“While our reported results were modestly below consensus, the variance was driven by lower than expected aluminum price realization late in the quarter, as LME prices declined sharply in the...”
“Adjusted EBITDA increased $3.00 $6 million to sequentially to $9.00 $1 million on record results in the Aluminum segment.”

Full figures

USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)

Metric Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 Change Q2 2025 YoY
Revenue 3.97B 3.19B +24.2% 3.02B +31.4%
Operating income 482.0M 499.0M −3.4% 161.0M +199.4%
Net income 407.0M 425.0M −4.2% 164.0M +148.2%
EPS 1.53 1.60 −4.4% 0.62 +146.8%
P/E today 9.0 10.8 17.0 −6.2 7.0 +3.8

Topics

Most discussed now

  • For the third quarter at the segment level, In the alumina segment, performance is expected to be net favorable by...
  • Operationally, Alcoa delivered another quarter of stable and reliable performance across most of its system, its focus on operational…
  • Sequentially, Alcoa increased primary aluminum production by 30 thousand metric tons.
  • In the aluminum segment, third party revenue increased by 31% to $3.3 billion due to higher shipments, an increase in...
  • In China, higher consumption and refinery disruptions kept the market relatively tight Demand outpaced supply growth supporting domestic…

Faded since Q1 2026

  • Fading For 2026 at the segment level, Alumina segment performance is expected to be unfavorable by approximately $15 million due to...
  • Fading Free cash flow was negative $298 million for the quarter, primarily reflecting seasonal working capital build, capital expenditures, and…
  • Fading Alcoa is still finalizing terms and will not comment on value today, but it will provide additional details later in...
  • Fading Starting with safety, Alcoa continued making progress with improved total injury rates in the first quarter.

Latest announcements

Official filings, newest first.

Similar companies

Basic Materials · Aluminum
All Basic Materials companies →