XPO, Inc. (XPO) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 1.9% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $11.92 a share — the stock trades 1485% above it. Today's price assumes 26.0% growth a year.

1. Figure

   Revenue rose 15%, yet operating income grew 36%, showing costs are growing slower than sales.

   Source quote

   “In North American LTL, we grew adjusted operating income by 36% on a 15% increase in revenue, highlighting the scalability... Excluding real estate gains, our adjusted EBITDA was up 25% year-over-year to $425 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.64, up 56%. We also brought down our adjusted operating ratio below 80%, which is a new record for us.”

2. Guidance

   XPO expects revenue per shipment growth, excluding fuel, to accelerate more than previously expected in the third quarter due to an improving trend in weight per shipment.

   Source quote

   “Notably, given the improving trend we've seen in weight per shipment, we now anticipate revenue per shipment growth, excluding fuel, to accelerate more than we previously expected in the third...”

3. Fading

   XPO reported that its network capacity and excess door capacity, which exceeded 30% at the end of the first quarter, is fading compared to the previous period.

   Source quote

   “If you look by the end of the first quarter, first starting with our network capacity, we had more than 30%...”

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 92% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“And that's a strong outcome overall, and it implies another very strong quarter of year-on-year margin improvement and it's driven by a combination of price, accelerating volumes and cost efficiency,...”

“Similarly, on premium services, I'm very proud of the team driving those on the sales side and the operations side to execute on them because we're seeing very strong momentum...”

“as Kyle mentioned earlier, we grew EBITDA in that business here in the second quarter in the high-single-digit range, and we expect to grow our EBITDA in the high teens...”