WM US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Waste Management (WM) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $240.29 · 2026-11-11
Waste Management is a holding company providing waste collection, recycling, and disposal services, as well as renewable energy and healthcare waste solutions. The company serves municipal, business, and residential customers across the United States, Canada, and Western Europe. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-09)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 27 Oct 2026 and 29 Jul 2026
Net income up 4.5% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+4.5%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 820.0M vs 785.0M
Revenue +2.4%
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 63% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
Waste Management has also signed a $250 million transaction that it expects to close early next year, and its pipeline remains robust, supporting…
Valuation
Is Waste Management undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 8.6% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $144.25 a share — the stock trades 67% above it. Today's price assumes 15.5% growth a year.
Current price
$240.29
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+15.5% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$144.25
Buy below
$108.19
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 67%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 122%
Read between the lines
-
Figure
For the first time since the acquisition, revenue was up year over year, and Waste Management grew operating EBITDA at 33%.
-
Fading
Operating EBITDA margin expanded by 40 basis points, overcoming a 60 basis point headwind from wildfire volumes and a 40 basis point headwind…
Source quote
“Operating EBITDA margin expanded by 40 basis points, overcoming a 60 basis point headwind from wildfire volumes and a 40 basis point headwind... In the second quarter, operating EBITDA grew 5.5% or 9.1%, excluding last year's wildfire cleanup contributions. The strong underlying margin expansion was led by the collection and disposal business, where continued price discipline, cost optimization and...”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“And despite a 70-point headwind from higher fuel costs, total company operating expenses remain below 60% of revenue, demonstrating the increasingly important role technology, combined with process improvements, is playing...”
“Looking at the results, we're right on track to achieve our guidance for the full year with revenue and free cash flow expected to finish at the high end of...”
“Operating EBITDA grew 5.8%, driven by strong price-to-cost spread in the collection and disposal business.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.85B | 6.68B | +2.4% | 6.44B | +6.3% |
| Gross profit | 2.75B | 2.73B | +0.9% | 2.65B | +4.1% |
| Operating income | 1.28B | 1.25B | +2.1% | 989.0M | +29.3% |
| Net income | 820.0M | 785.0M | +4.5% | 603.0M | +36.0% |
| EPS | 2.05 | 1.95 | +5.1% | 1.49 | +37.6% |
| P/E today 33.4 | 31.5 | 33.3 | −1.8 | 33.9 | −2.4 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Beginning this year, landfill accretion expense was moved from operating expenses to depreciation, depletion, amortization, and accretion…
- I'm pleased that Waste Management's healthcare solutions business is in such a good place after two years of hard work...
- Despite a 70-point headwind from higher fuel costs, total company operating expenses remain below 60% of revenue, demonstrating the…
- What I would also tell you is if you look at the core price yield and revenue build for residential,...
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading Waste Management had its quarterly business reviews with all of its area leaders, including WM HS last week.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
WM reported revenue of $6.846 billion for the third quarter of 2026, which increased 6.3% compared to $6.443 billion in the same period of the previous year.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Waste Management, Inc. announced that John J. Morris, Jr. will succeed Jim C. Fish, Jr. as President and CEO, effective January 4, 2027.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Waste Management, Inc. reported revenue of $6.684 billion for the second quarter of 2026, up 4.0% from $6.430 billion in the same period of the previous year.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
The company appointed Tara J. Hemmer as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer with a base salary of $850,000, while Rafael E. Carrasco announced his retirement effective July 17, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Waste Management, Inc. reported revenue of $6.227 billion for the first quarter of 2026, up from $6.018 billion in the same period of the previous year.
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
Waste Management, Inc. entered into Amendment No. 2 to its Revolving Credit Agreement on March 20, 2026, modifying EBIT and EBITDA definitions to allow for the add-back of equity-based compensation and interest accretion.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Devina Rankin resigned as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on November 1, 2025, and received a $1 million cash bonus on March 13, 2026, for her leadership and transition of duties.