USB US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call

U.S. Bancorp (USB) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

Share price: $60.70 · 2026-11-11

U.S. Bancorp is a financial services holding company that provides lending, depository, capital markets, and investment management services. It serves individual, business, and institutional customers through a network of branches and digital platforms in domestic and international markets. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-23)

Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 15 Oct 2026 and 16 Jul 2026

Management sounded upbeat, in its script and in answers to analysts.

1 · Numbers

—

Figures not yet filed

Outlook given

2 · How management spoke

Upbeat

More upbeat than 84% of company calls

Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.

Last call it was different: the answers were less upbeat than the script.

3 · What stood out

U.S. Bancorp expects capital ratios to build from current levels, positioning the company to resume share repurchases over the next one or two quarters.

Valuation

Is U.S. Bancorp undervalued?

Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.

At 5.6% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $79.37 a share — the stock trades 24% below it. Today's price assumes 2.0% growth a year.

Current price

$60.70

close of 2026-11-11

Market implies growth of i

+2.0% for 10 yrs

Fair value / share

$79.37

Buy below

$59.53

Price vs fair value

Undervalued 24%

Price vs buy-below price

Overvalued 2%

Management expects

Revenue +8.5% · from the Q3 2026 report: “The company updated its full year 2026 forecast to expect total net revenue growth of 8% to 9% compared to the prior year, or 6% to 7% excluding BTIG.”

A guidance figure for revenue, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.

FCF growth / yr i Discount rate i Terminal growth i Margin of safety i

Official channels

The company's own website and social media accounts.

Read between the lines

Guidance

The company expects to grow the combined capital markets business to approximately 10% of total net revenue or more over time.
Figure

Revenue reached a record $8 billion, up 8.7% from a year ago or 6.4% when adjusting for BTIG and securities losses.

Source quote
“Revenue was a record $8 billion up 8.7% from a year ago or up 6.4% adjusting for BTIG and securities losses.”
Guidance

The company now expects to deliver approximately 300 basis points positive operating leverage for the full year, or approximately 400 basis points excluding the impact from BTIG.
Guidance

The company updated its full year 2026 forecast to expect total net revenue growth of 8% to 9% compared to the prior year, or 6% to 7% excluding BTIG.
Guidance

USB expects capital ratios to build from current levels, positioning the company to resume share repurchases over the next one or two quarters.

4 more

Key theme

The mortgage area is anticipated to reach the mid twenties over time as growth in other categories increases.

Source quote
“We do see that coming down, and more because of the growth in the other categories are growing into it. So we anticipate the mortgage area will probably be in the mid twenties at some point over time.”
Figure

Loans grew 1.0% and deposits grew 2.2% sequentially, while the net interest margin expanded 5 basis points to 2.84%.
Figure

Operating leverage increased from 200 basis points to 300 basis points this year, serving as the fundamental driver for the company's performance.

Source quote
“And so that is going to be the fundamental driver for why the increase in operating leverage this year from that 200 basis points now up to 300 basis points.”
Key theme

U.S. Bancorp has invested in developing the capabilities to swap out models for cheaper models, and it has some confidence over time that it will continue to get positive returns from its AI program on productivity.

Tone

How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesi. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.

Prepared remarks Upbeat (was very upbeat)

Answers to analysts Upbeat (was typical)

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Results in the quarter reflect strong execution against our 3 strategic priorities, Net revenue grew 8.7% year over year, Disciplined productivity drove 240 basis points of positive operating leverage And...”

“Growth was driven by another record quarter of consumer deposits along with strong growth in relationship based deposits.”

“While fee growth does come with higher expenses, productivity initiatives, including from our AI programs, helped improve our efficiency ratio and increased return on average assets year over year.”

Full figures

Q3 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.

Topics

Most discussed now

While fee growth does come with higher expenses, productivity initiatives, including from U.S. Bancorp's AI programs, helped improve its…
Deepens client relationships, generates attractive returns, and contributes to a more balanced earnings profile.
Generating meaningful revenue growth and significant positive operating leverage.
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Faded since Q2 2026

Fading Expense discipline remains a hallmark for it, with 400 basis points of positive operating leverage this quarter.
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Latest announcements

Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.

2026-11-06 Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
2026-11-05 Current report · SEC 8-K · routine
2026-10-30 Change to shareholder rights; Articles or bylaws amended; Other events · SEC 8-K
2026-10-29 Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
2026-10-15 Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
The filing includes the 3Q26 earnings presentation and press release for U.S. Bancorp as of October 15, 2026.
2026-07-16 Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
U.S. Bancorp reported record net revenue of $7,712 million and diluted earnings per common share of $1.35, which increased 22% compared to the same period last year.
2026-06-24 Other events · SEC 8-K
U.S. Bancorp announced that its Stress Capital Buffer requirement remains at 2.6% until October 1, 2027, and the quarterly common stock dividend will increase from $0.52 to $0.54 per share starting in the third quarter of 2026.
2026-04-23 Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine

Catalyst calendar

management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.

over the next 3 to 5 years

capital markets to grow from 8% to 10% or more of total company revenue

Source quote
“We expect capital markets to grow from 8% to 10% or more of total company revenue over the next 3 to 5 years by focusing on 3 strategies: 1, continue to drive robust core organic growth across both franchises. In line with their historical performance. 2, deepen wallet share with our clients where we deploy significant balance sheet resources. The addition of BTIG strengthens our ability to serve a broader range of needs and capture greater fee revenue over time. and 3, by adding product capabilities across both platforms.”
later this fall

sharing more on our capital markets strategy at a conference

Source quote
“We look forward to sharing more on our capital markets strategy at a conference later this fall and are committed to providing more disclosures in due course as the business becomes a larger part of our revenue mix.”
going into 2027

small business segment will be an important priority

Source quote
“And this segment will be an important priority going into 2027.”
fourth quarter

net interest margin increase

Source quote
“We currently expect net interest margin to increase by a similar amount in the fourth quarter.”
over the next quarter or 2

resume share repurchases

Source quote
“We expect our capital ratios to build from here. Positioning us to resume share repurchases over the next quarter or 2.”