KeyCorp (KEY) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

At 1.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $19.50 a share — the stock trades 10% above it. Today's price assumes 2.4% growth a year.

1. Guidance

   KeyCorp is tightening its full-year net interest income growth outlook to approximately 10%, compared to the prior guidance, 9% to 11%.

2. Figure

   KeyCorp reported record quarterly revenue of over $2 billion, which represents 8% year-over-year growth, PPNR growth of $60 million on a linked quarter basis, and importantly, return on tangible common equity that exceeded 15%.

3. Guidance

   During the quarter, KeyCorp repurchased $320 million of common stock, keeping us on pace to achieve its four-year share repurchase target of $1.3 billion.

4. Guidance

   Since the start of the year, KeyCorp has repurchased over $1 billion of shares and approximately $250 million remaining to complete its targeted $1.3 billion of repurchases in 2026.

5. Key theme

   Non-performing assets decreased $191 million, or 19 basis points sequentially, and at 55 basis points is the lowest since late 2023.

3 more

1. Guidance

   KeyCorp sees four-year net charge-offs coming into the range of 37 to 39 basis points compared to the previous guidance of 40 to 45 basis points.

2. Guidance

   KeyCorp now expects to generate a net interest margin of approximately 3% of the fourth quarter of 2026, reflecting average earning asset growth of approximately one and a half to $2 billion from the third quarter.

3. Guidance

   Thank you for your dedication that will result in what KeyCorp expects to be both a record revenue and record pre-provision net revenue year in 2026.

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 88% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“The increase is driven by commercial loan growth, funding optimization via strong client deposit growth, swaps and securities repricing at higher rates, as well as an additional day in this...”

“We reported record quarterly revenue of over $2 billion, which represents 8% year-over-year growth, PPNR growth of $60 million on a linked quarter basis, and importantly, return on tangible common...”

“Client deposits, which exclude growth for CDEs, grew $2.8 billion, or 1.9%, driven by growth in commercial operating balances.”