SiriusXM (SIRI) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At −1.7% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $9.86 a share — the stock trades 227% above it. Today's price assumes 4.8% growth a year.

1. Guidance ↑

   Strong first-half performance led to a $25 million increase in full-year guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow.

   Source quote

   “Taken together, our first half performance gives the confidence to raise full year guidance by $25 million across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.”

2. Guidance

   SXM-12 launch next year will complete the satellite investment cycle, letting capital expenditures normalize and boosting free cash flow.

   Source quote

   “With the planned launch of SXM-12 next year expected to complete our current satellite investment cycle, we anticipate capital expenditures will normalize, providing an additional tailwind to free...”

3. Figure

   Podcasting revenue grew 30% year-over-year due to rising CPMs, increased sell-through, and appetite for culture-defining content.

   Source quote

   “Podcasting revenue grew 30% year-over-year, driven by rising CPMs, increased sell-through and an ongoing appetite for our culture-defining content.”

4. Fading

   Companion subscriptions are growing among loyal customers, and subscriber additions improved meaningfully year over year despite less emphasis this quarter.

   Source quote

   “This reflects the growing adoption of companion subscriptions among our most loyal customers, ongoing progress with our continuous service initiative... ...business, performance in the quarter was strong with a meaningful year-over-year improvement in self-pay net additions to negative 111,000, an improvement of 192,000. Together, these offerings expand SiriusXM's presence across multiple vehicles and users within a household and make it easier for subscribers to seamlessly maintain service as they transition between...”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“We continue to expect modestly lower full year self-pay net additions than last year as we anniversary the rollout of continuous service and continue to reduce promotional acquisition offers and...”

“And that may mean that we pull back from discounts at low prices and that create a better quality subscriber base.”

“And that's despite a meaningful second half headwind from higher memory costs as the memory suppliers have raised prices multiple times over the last 9 months, driven by that broader...”