TKO US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
TKO Group Holdings (TKO) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $199.50 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 4 Nov 2026 and 3 Aug 2026
Net income down 2.8% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
−2.8%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 98.7M vs 101.6M
Revenue −12.1%
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 61% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
With respect to WWE partnership revenue, TKO expects full-year revenue growth in excess of 20%.
Valuation
Is TKO Group Holdings undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $2.11 a share — the stock trades 9337% above it. Today's price assumes 41.4% growth a year.
Current price
$199.50
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+41.4% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$2.11
Buy below
$1.59
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Revenue +20% · from the Q3 2026 report: “With respect to WWE partnership revenue, we expect full-year revenue growth in excess of 20%.”
A guidance figure for revenue, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Key theme
Live events revenue increased 83% due to continued strong demand, including a record gate for UFC 329 and the two…
Source quote
“Live events revenue increased 83% due to continued strong demand, including a record gate for UFC 329 and the two... Meteorite's revenue increased 66%, driven by a step-up in fees related to the Skydance deal which began in January, as well as the two additional events. Financial incentive packages also contributed to the increase with meaningful FIPs from UFC 330 in Philadelphia as well as our fight night events in Abu Dhabi,...”
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Guidance
As with UFC, TKO expects WWE margins will increase meaningfully in Q4 and for the full year.
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Figure
All told, UFC live events revenue is up north of 80% this quarter over the prior year.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Expenses decreased primarily due to lower production, talent, and other event-related costs reflecting the lower PLE count.”
“Live events revenue increased 83% due to continued strong demand, including a record gate for UFC 329 and the two additional events.”
“Adjusted EBITDA reflected lower expenses, primarily personnel and other operating costs, partially offset by the decrease in revenue.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.36B | 1.55B | −12.1% | 1.12B | +21.5% |
| Operating income | 377.6M | 429.8M | −12.2% | 172.0M | +119.6% |
| Net income | 98.7M | 101.6M | −2.8% | 41.0M | +140.7% |
| EPS | 1.33 | 1.34 | −0.7% | 0.47 | +183.0% |
| P/E today 51.2 | 48.2 | 70.6 | −22.4 | 77.1 | −28.9 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- TKO's free cash flow conversion of adjusted EBITDA was 81%.
- On September 30th, TKO made a cash dividend payment from TKO Opco of approximately $150 million, or $0.79 per share.
- Regarding share repurchases, given the strength of its balance sheet and what TKO continues to believe is a dislocation in...
- As you've heard me say before, maintaining a robust and sustained capital return program remains a top priority.
- At the IMG segment, TKO expects healthy revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA.
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped As the rise of AI inevitably changes how TKO spends its time, live events built on scarcity, marketable IP and...
- Dropped You hear Mark talk about the Garcia event that's happening on the 12th of September and other events that were...
- Fading This event was a roaring success for TKO's company, the UFC brand and the sport of mixed martial arts, exposure,...
- Fading With regards to UFC Freedom 250, TKO incurred significantly higher-than-normal costs, which it partially offset with sold out global...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement; New financial obligation; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K