NTRA Nasdaq Russell 1000 Earnings call
Natera (NTRA) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $319.82 · 2026-11-11
Natera is a diagnostics company that uses molecular and bioinformatics technology to provide genetic testing for oncology, women's health, and organ health. The company offers blood-based DNA tests to identify genetic variations and monitor conditions such as cancer, prenatal health, and transplant rejection. It operates in the United States and internationally through a network of laboratory and distribution partners. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-27)
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 6 Aug 2026 and 7 May 2026
Net loss narrowed on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
Loss narrowed
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income -67.0M vs -85.1M
Revenue +8.1%
Net income -67.0M vs -100.9M in Q2 2025 and -85.1M last quarter.
Why Against the same quarter last year (loss narrowed), net income increased because total revenues grew approximately 38% over the same period last year due to strong volume performance and continued ASP execution.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 55% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Natera expects revenue between $2.85 billion and $2.91 billion while keeping operating expenses steady.
Valuation
Is Natera undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 20.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $38.57 a share — the stock trades 729% above it. Today's price assumes 51.5% growth a year.
Current price
$319.82
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+51.5% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$38.57
Buy below
$28.93
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
-
Guidance
The company stated its long-term goal is to reach a target of 70%+ gross margin.
-
Figure
NTRA generated approximately $753 million in revenue in the quarter, representing approximately 38% growth over Q2 of last year.
Source quote
“We generated approximately $753 million in revenue in the quarter, which represents approximately 38% growth over Q2 of last year.”
-
Figure
The company expects revenue between $2.85 billion and $2.91 billion while keeping operating expenses steady.
Source quote
“Our new range is $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion in revenues, and we are holding OpEx steady.”
-
Figure
In year 1 after surgery, Medicare will cover 6 tests for patients with kidney transplant at 12 tests for patients with heart and lung transplants.
-
Figure
Total revenues grew approximately 38% year over year because average selling price execution accelerated growth on top of volume performance.
Source quote
“Total revenues grew approximately 38% year over year as continued ASP execution accelerated growth on top of the volume performance.”
4 more
-
Figure
NTRA processed approximately 1.044 million tests in the second quarter, exceeding 1 million units and setting a new company record for volume performance.
Source quote
“We processed approximately 1.044 million tests in the second quarter once again exceeding 1 million units and setting a new company record with strong volume performance across the business.”
-
Figure
The overall no call rate fell to 0.5%, representing an improvement of roughly 80% compared to the prior version of the test.
Source quote
“Bringing the overall no call rate down to 0.5%. An improvement of roughly 80% compared to our prior version of the test.”
-
Guidance
The company expects to see meaningful average selling price improvement to impact future results.
-
Guidance
NTRA expects the pace of readouts to accelerate meaningfully over the next few years.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“As you can see on the chart, while R&D in our core areas is clearly growing, the gross profit dollars are accelerating over and above this growth.”
“I am also really encouraged by the contribution from the long tail, both because it demonstrates broad adoption of Signatera in clinical practice, and also because it increases the revenue...”
“In the quarter, women's health results were particularly strong on a seasonally adjusted basis with high-single-digit growth versus Q2 of last year.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 752.8M | 696.6M | +8.1% | 546.6M | +37.7% |
| Operating income | -75.8M | -93.5M | Loss narrowed | -110.4M | Loss narrowed |
| Net income | -67.0M | -85.1M | Loss narrowed | -100.9M | Loss narrowed |
| EPS | -0.47 | -0.60 | Loss narrowed | -0.74 | Loss narrowed |
| P/E | 12-mo loss | 12-mo loss | — | 12-mo loss | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New From multiple different guideline bodies in Japan And then the reimbursement is really gonna be the unlock.
- The prospective blinded studies supporting this launch included over 3.3 thousand patients with more than 240 low fetal fraction cases.
- Natera's new enhanced panorama test closes that gap.
- Despite this limitation, most other labs who use a counting-based approach will routinely provide results at low fetal fraction without...
- On top of Natera still continues to invest and read out biobank studies as well.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading Given some of Alex's comments, what Natera knows about it already being in the guidelines, MRD being recommended in several...
- Fading Just a general comment on OpEx generally is its posture is to marry up the spending discipline that Natera has talked...
- Fading What Natera has seen in Signatera is really consistent growth in new patients.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Natera reported revenue of $752.8 million in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 37.7% compared to $546.6 million in the second quarter of 2025.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Monica Bertagnolli resigned from the Board of Directors and all committees of Natera, Inc. effective July 1, 2026, to accept a new position with the National Academy of Medicine.
- Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
Stockholders approved an amendment to the 2015 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the shares reserved for issuance by 3.2 million shares of common stock.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Natera, Inc. increased its Board size from eleven to twelve members and appointed Thomas Lynch as an independent director and member of the Human Capital Committee effective June 2, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Natera reported total revenues of $696.6 million in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 38.8% compared to $501.8 million in the first quarter of 2025.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Natera, Inc. increased its Board size from ten to eleven members and appointed Eric Rubin as an independent director effective March 26, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Natera reported total revenues of $2,306.1 million for the full year 2025, an increase of 35.9% compared to $1,696.9 million in 2024.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-11.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$466.0M
2022-12-31
Short-term investments
$1.0M
total $467.0M
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: +5.1% YoY, +1.3% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 123.8M |
| Q1 2025 | 134.8M |
| Q2 2025 | 136.4M |
| Q3 2025 | 137.2M |
| Q1 2026 | 141.5M |
| Q2 2026 | 143.3M |
Shares outstanding: 144.1M (2026-07-31)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 174 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
490.1K shares
$138.5M · 201 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
-
the rest of the year
executing in women's health
Source quote
“We think this puts us in a strong position to continue executing in women's health for the rest of the year.”
-
the back half of the year
volume growth
Source quote
“We think this sets up nicely for volume growth in the back half of the year.”
-
the second half of the year
benefit of Medicare reimbursement in the second half of the year
Source quote
“And the August 30 effective date on the policy means we will start to see the benefit of Medicare reimbursement in the second half of the year.”
-
later this year
commercial launch in Japan
Source quote
“We expect a commercial launch later this year pending final pricing and reimbursement determination, which is on track.”
-
2028
IVDD transition deadline
Source quote
“While also ensuring continuity of access for patients after the expected IVDD transition deadline in 2028.”