MTCH Nasdaq Russell 1000 Earnings call
Match Group (MTCH) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $41.63 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 4 Aug 2026 and 5 May 2026
Net income up 2.2% on the previous quarter. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+2.2%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 170.5M vs 166.8M
Revenue −1.3%
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 66% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
Match Group raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast from $330 million to $335 million, representing a 10% increase in adjusted EBITDA margin to 37% at…
Valuation
Is Match Group undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 3.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $50.40 a share — the stock trades 17% below it. Today's price assumes 1.0% growth a year.
Current price
$41.63
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+1.0% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$50.40
Buy below
$37.80
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 17%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 10%
Management expects
EBITDA +37% · from the Q2 2026 report: “Match Group raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast from $330 million to $335 million, representing a 10% increase in adjusted EBITDA margin to 37% at the…”
A guidance figure for ebitda, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Key theme
Subscription and a la carte feature revenue increased year over year in Q2 globally and across Tinder’s top five revenue countries.
Source quote
“While we do not expect these metrics to always move in lockstep every quarter, that we have some user experience... ...a subscription or a la carte feature, was up year over year in Q2, both globally and across Tinder's top 5 revenue countries in aggregate, and direct revenue per MAU was up 6% year over year globally. The longer term trend is clear and gives us confidence that continued MAU improvement should support better payer and revenue results over time.”
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Guidance
Azar's app redesign drove revenue roughly $5 million higher than previously expected.
Source quote
“The revenue impact from Azar's app redesign was approximately $5 million better than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call.”
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Figure
Match has also shifted its strategy more towards lower funnel channels, which now represent roughly half of its total spend…
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Fading
A $45 million user investment budget remains, but Azar weakness is expected to pull full-year results to the lower half of guidance.
Source quote
“One of the things I'm looking at pretty closely is we've got a $45 million user investment budget still slated... At Tinder, we'll have to see how things play out. So I'd expect us to end up at the lower end -- lower half of the full year guidance range given Azar weakness if we end up using that $45 million user investment budget.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Global MAUs grew 13% year over year in Q2, driven by strong growth in its expansion markets.”
“Meanwhile, Hinge continues to deliver strong growth with meaningful runway across product innovation, international expansion, and monetization.”
“And then still very strong growth in the international expansion markets.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 853.1M | 863.9M | −1.3% | 863.7M | −1.2% |
| Gross profit | 648.8M | 653.3M | −0.7% | 621.8M | +4.3% |
| Operating income | 245.4M | 236.4M | +3.8% | 193.9M | +26.6% |
| Net income | 170.5M | 166.8M | +2.2% | 125.5M | +35.9% |
| EPS | 0.70 | 0.68 | +2.9% | 0.49 | +42.9% |
| P/E today 14.3 | 13.5 | 11.7 | +1.8 | 15.3 | −1.8 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Tinder direct revenue in Q2 was $457 million, down 1% and down 2% FXN.
- Match has an event sourcing team that is building out those partnerships that allows it to scalably expand to many...
- Hinge has strong product market fit with intention to daters, and it is designed to be deleted promise is clear.
- Hinge grew direct revenue 86% year over year, across its European expansion markets, and maintained the number 1 downloaded position...
- Including a reimagined user experience with more contextual, individually engaging profile elements and AI powered profile building.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Dropped There are many other initiatives brewing that exact greater synergy between the brands.
- Dropped I've definitely changed the culture internally away from being siloed to being much more deeply collaborative and communicative and in...
- Fading Looking ahead, Match's objective is to drive a Resurgence with its audience by reestablishing Tinder as a growth business during...
- Fading Some of these risks have been set forth in Match's earnings release and...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K