MRNA US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
Moderna (MRNA) · Q2 2026 results
Share price: $248.69 · 2026-11-11
Moderna develops and manufactures mRNA medicines, including vaccines and therapeutics for infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases. The company operates a global manufacturing network to provide its products to patients in international markets. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-20)
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 31 Jul 2026 and 1 May 2026
Net loss narrowed on the previous quarter. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
Loss narrowed
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income -782.0M vs -1.34B
Revenue −62.7%
Net income -782.0M vs -825.0M in Q2 2025 and -1.34B last quarter.
Why Against the same quarter last year (loss narrowed), net income improved by 5% compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by a 22% decrease in cost of sales from lower unutilized manufacturing capacity costs and a 7% decrease in R&D expenses.
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 70% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Moderna's seasonal flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, received a positive recommendation from the U.S. VRBPAC in the respiratory portfolio.
Valuation
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year, grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
Valuation unavailable: free cash flow and profit were negative in the last full year and on average over the last three, so there is nothing to discount.
Current price
$248.69
close of 2026-11-11
Revenue growth, 3 years
−53.4% a year
compound annual rate (CAGR)
Free cash flow 2023
−$3.8B
Free cash flow 2024
−$4.1B
Free cash flow 2025
−$2.1B
Read between the lines
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Key theme
Moderna is pleased with its first half performance and are reiterating its expectation for revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026.
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Guidance
The company is on track for up to 10% revenue growth this year and aims for a lower cash cost guidance of approximately $4 billion to improve operational efficiency.
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Figure
Cost of sales fell 22% to $93 million from the prior year because lower unutilized manufacturing capacity costs reflect improved manufacturing efficiency.
Source quote
“Cost of sales for the quarter was $93 million, a 22% decrease compared to the prior year, primarily driven by lower unutilized manufacturing capacity costs as we continue to improve our manufacturing efficiency.”
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Key theme
Excluding the $0.9 billion litigation charge, expected total GAAP operating expenses are $4.7 billion and cash costs are $4 billion, excluding stock-based compensation, depreciation, and amortization.
Source quote
“In aggregate, excluding the $0.9 billion litigation charge, we are expecting total GAAP operating expenses of $4.7 billion and $4 billion of cash costs, which excludes stock-based compensation, depreciation and amortization.”
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Figure
The seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010 received a positive recommendation from the U.S. VRBPAC in the respiratory portfolio.
Source quote
“In our respiratory portfolio, our seasonal flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, received a positive recommendation from the U.S. VRBPAC.”
4 more
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Guidance
The propionic acidemia program is fully enrolled in its registrational study, with data expected in 2026.
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Guidance
The company expects Phase III data potentially in the second half of the year based on the current trend.
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Key theme
The company expects some contribution from traditional commercialization and tender markets beginning in 2027, with the full effect likely not felt until 2028 or later due to various requirements.
Source quote
“So we would expect some contribution from traditional commercialization markets as well as tender markets beginning in 2027, but the full effect really probably not felt until 2028 and maybe a little bit beyond depending upon what individual countries require from real-world effectiveness data or other things post approval to support market access.”
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Figure
Moderna will supply some of its strategic partnerships this year, which the company describes as quite material.
Source quote
“This year, we will supply some of the strategic partnerships that we have, and it's quite material.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Ester joined us with more than 30 years of commercial leadership experience and an outstanding track record of leading high-performing organization across the health care industry.”
“Slide 13 outlines our multiyear revenue growth strategy, anchored in geographic expansion and portfolio expansion from the continued advancement of our product pipeline.”
“Looking at the second half of the year, on the commercial and financial side, we remain on track for up to 10% revenue growth this year and also remain committed...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 145.0M | 389.0M | −62.7% | 142.0M | +2.1% |
| Gross profit | 52.0M | — | 23.0M | +126.1% | |
| Operating income | -815.0M | -1.39B | Loss narrowed | -907.0M | Loss narrowed |
| Net income | -782.0M | -1.34B | Loss narrowed | -825.0M | Loss narrowed |
| EPS | -1.97 | -3.40 | Loss narrowed | -2.13 | Loss narrowed |
| P/E | 12-mo loss | 12-mo loss | — | 12-mo loss | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- For Moderna's norovirus vaccine, mRNA-1403, the Phase III study did not meet the statistical criteria for early success at its...
- New Moderna's Phase III development program also includes studies in adjuvant non-small cell lung cancer, including a Phase III study in...
- New In some cases, you need recommending bodies sort of analogous to CDC recommending body recommendations before you engage in that...
- New On the question of combo in Europe and negotiations, so with approval, Moderna can start the pricing negotiations with many...
- Moderna is making tangible progress against this strategy, and mNEXSPIKE is now approved in Japan and Taiwan.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Dropped Moderna will continue to invest in AI with a number of cross enterprise projects to reinvent work with AI.
- Fading Moderna's strong revenue performance year-to-date puts us on a solid path to achieve its full year revenue growth target of...
- Fading Moderna definitely have reserved alpha for both of those for what it thinks would still be commercially important products.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Moderna announced that Juan Andres will return as Chief Operating Officer effective October 5, 2026, while Jerh Collins will retire from the company.
- Material agreement; New financial obligation; Unregistered share sale; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Moderna, Inc. issued a press release on July 31, 2026, announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Moderna, Inc. appointed Michael McDonnell to the Board of Directors and the Audit Committee effective July 8, 2026, while David Rubenstein moved to the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
- Articles or bylaws amended; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Moderna, Inc. issued a press release on May 1, 2026, announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
Moderna entered into a settlement agreement with Arbutus/Genevant involving a $950 million noncontingent lump sum payment and a potential $1.3 billion contingent payment to resolve all patent infringement litigation.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-11.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$1.72B
2026-06-30
Short-term investments
$3.42B
total $5.14B
Avg quarterly burn
$268.2M
operating cash flow, TTM: FY2025 + H1 2026 − H1 2025
Implied runway
4.8 years
(cash + short-term investments) ÷ burn
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: +2.6% YoY, +0.8% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 385.0M |
| Q1 2025 | 386.0M |
| Q2 2025 | 388.0M |
| Q3 2025 | 390.0M |
| Q1 2026 | 395.0M |
| Q2 2026 | 398.0M |
Shares outstanding: 399.2M (2026-07-24)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 63 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
970.4K shares
$63.9M · 17 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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August 5
PDUFA date for the seasonal flu vaccine, mRNA-1010
Source quote
“This represents another important milestone ahead of our August 5 PDUFA date and brings us one step closer to potentially making our flu vaccine available to patients.”
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2026
presentation of the 5-year Phase II update of Intismeran autogene in combination with KEYTRUDA in adjuvant melanoma
Source quote
“In oncology, we are very pleased to present the 5-year Phase II update of Intismeran autogene in combination with KEYTRUDA in adjuvant melanoma at ASCO 2026, highlighting the continued durability of the clinical benefit observed on this program.”
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2026
expected revenue growth
Source quote
“Overall, we are pleased with our first half performance and are reiterating our expectation for revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026.”
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2026
expected revenue growth
Source quote
“We still expect total revenue to grow up to 10% in 2026 with”
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2026
revenue growth
Source quote
“For 2026, we continue to expect revenue growth of up to 10%, driven by our long-term strategic partnerships in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia and supported by the continued growth of mNEXSPIKE.”