Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 20.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $66.51 a share — the stock trades 26% below it. Today's price assumes 14.9% growth a year.

1. Guidance

   Two weeks ago, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals reported positive top line Phase III results from the global SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 studies in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia, or sHTG.

2. Guidance

   Costs associated with the active execution of studies are expected to begin to moderate down over time starting in fiscal 2027.

   Source quote

   “Accordingly, we expect costs associated with active execution of those studies to begin to moderate down over time, beginning in fiscal 2027.”

3. Fading

   Costs tied to actively executing those studies are expected to start moderating downward in fiscal 2027.

   Source quote

   “As we reported today, net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, was $132.7 million or a loss of $0.93... This compares to net income of $370.4 million or $2.75 per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, based on 134.5 million fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding in that quarter.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Given the opportunities we are seeing in FCS, we have expanded and are continuing to expand our commercial footprint and our capabilities where appropriate.”

“The increase year-over-year was primarily attributed to a $32 million increase in candidate costs, reflecting continued progression of our pipeline through clinical development, including the Phase III registrational program for...”

“But I mean, for sHTG, 500 mg per deciliter is the threshold and it's thought to be below that, you should reduce the risk for acute pancreatitis, which is really...”