CF Industries (CF) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

At −14.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $26.57 a share — the stock trades 364% above it. Today's price assumes 1.3% growth a year.

1. Figure

   Firm-wide revenue of $616 million for the 3-month period increased by 37% year-over-year and by 16% sequentially, representing CF's second highest quarterly revenue on record.

2. Figure

   Firm-wide pretax net income for CF's third fiscal quarter rose 103% year-over-year to $81 million, bringing its fiscal year-to-date net income to $174 million, up 49% year-over-year.

3. Figure

   While certain costs increased in connection with higher revenue generation, CF's total expenses as a percentage of revenue declined by 4.3 percentage points compared to the same period of last year.

4. Figure

   Revenue of $304 million and adjusted pretax net income of $57 million increased by 30% and 57%, respectively.

5. Figure

   Client assets at the end of the quarter reached a new record of $145 billion, representing a 26% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by market appreciation, acquisitions and supported by positive net flows.

3 more

1. Key theme

   Although CF is pleased with the current and prior quarter's activity levels, I would caution against assuming these activity levels represent a normalized run rate.

2. Figure

   On November 7, CF completed the sale of its U.S. wholesale market making business, allowing us to sharpen its focus on its integrated M&A and investment banking capital markets capabilities while reducing the cost base and risk profile of its U.S. capital markets operations.

3. Figure

   Yes. yes, CF will retain control, more than 50% ownership.

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Strong revenue performance in the current quarter, together with our continued focus on organic and inorganic growth initiatives has strengthened profit margins across the business and positioned us well relative...”

“Firm-wide revenue of $616 million for the 3-month period increased by 37% year-over-year and by 16% sequentially, representing our second highest quarterly revenue on record.”

“The adjusted pretax profit margin improved by 10 percentage points year-over-year to 17%, with the most notable increases in our Australian and U.S.”

Q3 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.