MOH NYSE Russell 1000 Earnings call
Molina Healthcare (MOH) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $209.25 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 23 Jul 2026 and 23 Apr 2026
Net income up 328.6% on the previous quarter, guidance raised. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+328.6%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Guidance raised
Net income 60.0M vs 14.0M
Revenue +0.7%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is −76.5%, so the move on last quarter looks seasonal or timing-related rather than a trend.
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 72% of company calls
Answers to analysts: cautious, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
2026 EPS guidance of at least $5.25 includes $2.50 of losses not expected to recur in 2027.
Valuation
Is Molina Healthcare undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $205.78 a share — the stock trades 2% above it. Today's price assumes 9.7% growth a year.
Current price
$209.25
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+9.7% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$205.78
Buy below
$154.33
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 2%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 36%
Read between the lines
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Guidance ↑
MOH raised its earnings guidance because of first half performance in Medicaid.
Source quote
“This increase to our earnings guidance reflects first half performance in Medicaid.”
-
Figure
MOH reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.51 on $10.2 billion of premium revenue for the quarter.
Source quote
“Last night, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.51 on $10.2 billion of premium revenue.”
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Fading
Medical costs were reported at 7.5% for last year based on dates of service on a pure period basis.
Source quote
“Those dates of service on a pure period basis in retrospect, can look different than what we reported at the time. we go back and we look at the full development of medical costs, and we put them in the periods of their dates of service. So the 7.5% that we looked at for last year is certainly the number we saw.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“These wins continue our highly successful track record of retaining contracts where our historical win rate on reprocurement has now increased to above 90%.”
“This is led by Medicaid, which assumes 90 basis points of MCR improvement over 3 years, which is a modest improvement in the current rate and trended balance; second, future...”
“Early commentary on our 2027 outlook for premium and earnings per share, our growth initiatives and strategy for sustaining profitable growth and some commentary on the political and regulatory landscape.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.87B | 10.80B | +0.7% | 11.43B | −4.8% |
| Gross profit | 1.43B | 1.53B | −6.0% | 1.60B | −10.3% |
| Operating income | 145.0M | 83.0M | +74.7% | 373.0M | −61.1% |
| Net income | 60.0M | 14.0M | +328.6% | 255.0M | −76.5% |
| EPS | 1.19 | 0.27 | +340.7% | 4.75 | −74.9% |
| P/E today 1021.3 | 1203.7 | 35.6 | +1168.1 | 14.7 | +1189.0 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New At Investor Day, Molina Healthcare said it need 90 bps on across the 3 years to get to its target margins.
- These building blocks position us well for profitable growth in 2027.
- Molina Healthcare's adjusted G&A ratio for the quarter was 6.5% and reflects continued operating cost discipline.
- The only real data point Molina Healthcare has fortunately have is Nebraska, which actually started this process early.
- The operating cash flows really just come and go with the subsidiary assets and liabilities.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading With low and no utilizers now at the lowest level Molina Healthcare has seen, it does not expect any acuity shift...
- Fading Adjusted for prior year risk adjustment and program integrity impacts reduces that metric to approximately 79.5%.
- Fading Molina Healthcare's guidance membership attrition was 2% for the year.
- Fading To Joe's point, the acuity impact, potential acuity impact on a higher attrition assumption for Medicaid, Molina Healthcare is really not…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Articles or bylaws amended; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement; New financial obligation; Impairment · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K