LLY US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
Lilly (Eli) (LLY) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $1437.29 · 2026-11-11
Lilly is a pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products. Its portfolio includes medicines for cardiometabolic health, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. The company operates and distributes its products in the United States, Europe, Asia, and approximately 90 other countries. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-12)
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 5 Aug 2026 and 30 Apr 2026
Net income down 4.1% on the previous quarter. Management sounded cautious, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
−4.1%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 7.09B vs 7.40B
Revenue +16.0%
Why Against the same quarter last year (+25.3%), net income rose primarily because revenue grew 48% driven by volume growth for Zepbound and Mounjaro, alongside a 9 percentage point increase in non-GAAP performance margin.
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Lilly increased its non-GAAP performance margin forecast to between 49% and 50.5%, an increase of 2 percentage points at both the low and high ends.
Valuation
Is Lilly (Eli) undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 20.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $418.77 a share — the stock trades 243% above it. Today's price assumes 36.3% growth a year.
Current price
$1437.29
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+36.3% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$418.77
Buy below
$314.08
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
-
Guidance
The company updated its full-year revenue guidance to between $85 billion and $87 billion.
-
Guidance
Due to higher revenue, the company increased its non-GAAP performance margin forecast to between 49% and 50.5%, an increase of 2 percentage points at both the low and high ends.
-
Figure
Revenue grew 48% compared to Q2 2025, driven by Zepbound and Mounjaro across all areas and geographies.
Source quote
“Revenue grew 48% compared to Q2 2025, driven by Zepbound and Mounjaro, with strong momentum across all [Technical Difficulty] areas and geographies.”
-
Figure
Gross margin as a percentage of revenue was 86.3% in Q2, an increase of approximately 1.3 percentage points versus the same quarter last year.
-
Figure
Lilly is the global market leader, and Lilly strengthened that position, gaining almost 2 percentage points of share compared to Q1 2026, reaching approximately 55%.
2 more
-
Figure
These results were presented during the Plenary Session at the 2026 ASCO meeting, and showed that selpercatinib reduced the risk of disease recurrence or death by 83% versus placebo.
-
Key theme
The pace and average deal size have continued to increase, reflecting a strategy to grow within core therapeutic areas and create opportunities through emerging science.
Source quote
“The pace and average deal size have also continued to increase, reflecting our strategy to grow within our core therapeutic areas and create new opportunities through emerging science.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“In Neuroscience, Kisunla posted strong revenue growth, expanding its leadership position in the U.S.”
“It's still early days, I think, in watching what this drug can do, excited to see it grow in the marketplace and then new indications coming and new opportunities to...”
“We expect continued strong performance outside the U.S., but with market share leadership already established, market expansion will be key to driving sustainable growth.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.97B | 19.80B | +16.0% | 15.56B | +47.7% |
| Gross profit | 19.71B | 16.22B | +21.5% | 13.11B | +50.3% |
| Operating income | 9.25B | 8.85B | +4.5% | 6.78B | +36.4% |
| Net income | 7.09B | 7.40B | −4.1% | 5.66B | +25.3% |
| EPS | 7.94 | 8.26 | −3.9% | 6.29 | +26.2% |
| P/E today 43.9 | 40.3 | 32.7 | +7.6 | 50.9 | −10.6 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- After educating physicians and securing commercial access across all 3 major PBMs in June, Lilly began broad direct-to-consumer marketing…
- The change was driven primarily by favorable product mix and improved cost of production.
- Marketing, selling, and administrative expenses increased 25%, as Lilly invested in promotional activities to support current and planned…
- For Foundayo, Lilly is making pretty meaningful progress on the Foundayo performance and building out the brand.
- Lilly is starting to see an inflection point on Foundayo now and with continued access growth and overall kind of HCP...
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading This reflects a strong underlying performance of Monjaro and SEB in Q1.
- Fading This is the first time a new incretin medicine has been launched with obesity as its indication first.
- Fading Of course, building broad access in commercial, Medicare via the bridge program, and later Medicaid access for patients.
- Fading Pretty much every time Lilly reduces pricing, it sees a pretty large expansion.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The filing provides the financial results for Eli Lilly and Company for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, as detailed in the attached press release.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Eli Lilly and Company filed an 8-K report on May 20, 2026, listing various notes with interest rates ranging from 0.500% to 6.77% and maturities extending to 2061.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The filing provides the financial results for Eli Lilly and Company for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, as detailed in the attached press release.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The filing provides the financial results for Eli Lilly and Company for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, as detailed in the attached press release.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Eli Lilly and Company elected Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D, as a new independent member of the Board of Directors effective December 8, 2025.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The filing provides the financial results for Eli Lilly and Company for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, as detailed in the attached press release.
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
-
later this year
regulatory action for Foundayo for type 2 diabetes
Source quote
“We completed the U.S. submission of Foundayo for type 2 diabetes and expect regulatory action later this year.”
-
later this year
additional approvals for Foundayo in over 40 countries
Source quote
“Foundayo is under regulatory review in over 40 additional countries, and we look forward to additional approvals later this year.”
-
July 1
Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program launch
Source quote
“As shown on Slide 6, the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program launched on July 1, granting 20 million eligible Americans insurance coverage for GLP-1s for obesity at the low out-of-pocket price of $50 per month.”
-
later this year
sharing more details on a new commitment to address the growing burden of diabetes and obesity in resource-limited settings
Source quote
“We are now developing a new commitment to address the growing burden of diabetes and obesity in resource-limited settings worldwide and will share more details about this plan later this year.”
-
this year
potential approvals in additional markets
Source quote
“We look forward to potential approvals in additional markets this year.”