Amgen (AMGN) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

At 11.8% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $320.02 a share — the stock trades 46% above it. Today's price assumes 16.0% growth a year.

1. Key theme

   M-Deltra in small cell lung cancer, where Amgen is working to establish it as the cornerstone therapy.

   Source quote

   “M-Deltra in small cell lung cancer, where we are working to establish it as the cornerstone therapy. We reported positive Phase III results from three important programs. Tez Spire in eosinophilic esophagitis, an area with significant unmet need.”

2. Guidance ↑

   Amgen is pleased with the strength of its execution and are raising its 2026 guidance ranges for both revenue and non-GAAP EPS.

3. Guidance

   Amgen now expects 2026 total revenues in the range of $38.9 billion to $39.7 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share between $22.90 and $23.70.

4. Fading

   Then the other half of Amgen's growth is coming from primary care physicians and expansion in the number of primary care physicians…

   Source quote

   “And then the other half of our growth is coming from primary care physicians and expansion in the number of primary care physicians... So that's roughly about half of our growth. And there, I would highlight one specific patient type, and that's -- those patients who have diabetes.”

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 89% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“As we close out the year, we remain focused on executing our strategy, advancing our growth drivers, investing in the best innovation, and maintaining our rigorous financial discipline that supports...”

“All six of our key growth drivers delivered double-digit growth in the quarter, together growing 27% year-over-year and now representing more than 70% of product sales.”

“In the United States, robust patient demand continues to drive momentum, supported by an expanding prescriber base and deeper adoption among treating physicians.”