Incyte (INCY) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 14.8% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $243.26 a share — the stock trades 50% below it. Today's price assumes 4.6% growth a year.

1. Key theme

   Top line data from the Phase III study with steroids is expected in early 2028, while Phase II data with ruxolitinib is expected in the second half of 2026.

   Source quote

   “Top line data from the Phase III study with steroids is expected in early 2028. We remain on track to share top line data from the Phase II study in combination with ruxolitinib in the second half of 2026. We're also advancing a portfolio of molecularly targeted therapies for myeloproliferative neoplasms, or MPNs, focused on the underlying driver mutations of disease.”

2. Guidance

   The company updated its guidance to expect XR sales to reach $40 million to $50 million for the full year as part of its Jakafi guidance.

   Source quote

   “We expect XR sales to approach $40 million to $50 million for the full year, which is captured in our full year Jakafi guidance.”

3. Guidance ↑

   The company raised its full-year hematology and oncology portfolio guidance range to $860 million to $890 million due to strong performance in the first half of the year.

   Source quote

   “Regarding our hematology and oncology portfolio, we are narrowing and raising full year guidance range to $860 million to $890 million based on strong performance in the first...”

4. Fading

   Prescription demand increased 6% across all indications, providing a foundation for the Jakafi XR launch despite the noted fade in new patient starts.

   Source quote

   “New patient starts remain strong Prescription demand increased 6% with broad-based growth across all indications, MF, PV and GVHD. The prescriber base is stable and a formulary coverage is broad, providing an important foundation for the Jakafi XR launch.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Demand here remains strong with prescriptions increasing 26% year-over-year, which outpaced the overall market, which grew 21%.”

“Growth remains robust in vitiligo, where we see strong demand across markets.”

“New patient starts also remained strong with Opzelura capturing 46% of branded topical NBRx volume, a leading indicator of future growth and business health.”