ICE US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $180.59 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 30 Jul 2026 and 30 Apr 2026
Net income down 32.2% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
−32.2%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 958.0M vs 1.41B
Revenue −1.5%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is +12.6%, so the move on last quarter looks seasonal or timing-related rather than a trend.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 60% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Figure
Intercontinental Exchange announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire MarketAxess for $167 per share.
Valuation
Is Intercontinental Exchange undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 9.5% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $136.09 a share — the stock trades 33% above it. Today's price assumes 12.6% growth a year.
Current price
$180.59
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+12.6% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$136.09
Buy below
$102.07
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 33%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 77%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
The company expects the transaction to be immediately accretive to adjusted earnings per share in the first year post-close as the platform scales and synergies are realized.
Source quote
“We anticipate the transaction will be immediately accretive to ICE's adjusted earnings per share in the first year post close, with accretion improving as synergies are realized and the combined platform scales.”
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Guidance
ICE expects to achieve approximately $100 million of annualized expense synergies with one-third realized in year one and two-thirds by year two.
Source quote
“We expect to achieve approximately $100 million of annualized expense synergies with 1/3 realized in year 1, 2/3 by year 2 and the full run rate achieved by year...”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Improving growth will take time and investment, but expanding the revenue potential of acquired franchises is a core competency at ICE, and the opportunity here is compelling.”
“As a result of this broad-based strength, we now expect Exchange recurring revenues to grow in the high single-digit range for the full year 2026.”
“Having built strong distribution in the retail and wealth channel, we now see a clear opportunity to extend our reach into the institutional investor segment, where MarketAxess has a leading...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.61B | 3.67B | −1.5% | 3.26B | +10.7% |
| Operating income | 1.39B | 1.67B | −16.5% | 1.30B | +7.2% |
| Net income | 958.0M | 1.41B | −32.2% | 851.0M | +12.6% |
| EPS | 1.69 | 2.48 | −31.9% | 1.48 | +14.2% |
| P/E today 21.5 | 17.4 | 22.9 | −5.5 | 35.2 | −17.8 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New Intercontinental Exchange will be discussing its recently announced acquisition of MarketAxess.
- New The GSEs, as I alluded to in last quarter's call, have come out with pretty strict guidance on how AI...
- On a fully synergized basis, the transaction represents an EV to adjusted EBITDA multiple of approximately 10.6x.
- The defining event was the reversal of the global easing cycle.
- Participation continued to broaden and Intercontinental Exchange's market data user base grew 10% year-over-year.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Dropped Given the recent pullback in volumes, Intercontinental Exchange is getting a lot of questions on whether it has tilted into bad…
- Dropped Intercontinental Exchange is also seeing the benefit of clients, all the sales success that I've mentioned in past calls, it has more...
- Fading Intercontinental Exchange's business deepens with use, its recurring revenues compound over time and its expense discipline creates the…
- Fading Adjusted free cash flow generation was a first quarter record $1.2 billion, a figure that speaks to the quality of...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Articles or bylaws amended · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K