CME US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
CME Group (CME) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $315.87 · 2026-11-11
CME Group provides trading platforms for futures, options, and cash products across asset classes including interest rates, equities, foreign exchange, and commodities. The company serves a global customer base of financial institutions, corporations, and individual investors while operating as a central counterparty clearing provider. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-26)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 21 Oct 2026 and 22 Jul 2026
Management sounded upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
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No financial figures for this pair
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 88% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, but clearly less so than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
CME Group returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders during the quarter through $465 million in regular quarterly dividends and $524 million in share repurchases.
Valuation
Is CME Group undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 9.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $252.79 a share — the stock trades 25% above it. Today's price assumes 12.1% growth a year.
Current price
$315.87
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+12.1% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$252.79
Buy below
$189.59
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 25%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 67%
Read between the lines
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Figure
The third quarter average daily volume reached 29.4 million contracts, which is the highest in history and a 16 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
Source quote
“The third quarter average daily volume of 29.4 million contracts was the highest third quarter average daily volume in CME Group's history and increased 16 percent compared to the same period last year.”
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Figure
Open interest rose to over 133 million contracts, the highest end-of-September figure in company history, following 128 million contracts at the previous quarter end.
Source quote
“Quarter end open interest reached 128 million contracts, and today it's over 133, the highest open interest at the end of September in our history.”
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Figure
CME returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders during the quarter through $465 million in regular quarterly dividends and $524 million in share repurchases to reinforce disciplined capital return.
Source quote
“Reinforcing our commitment to disciplined capital return, we returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders during the quarter with $465 million in regular quarterly dividends and $524 million in share repurchases.”
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Key theme
Management expects these items to impact clearing and transaction fees by between half to one percent on an annualized basis.
Source quote
“We're expecting if you look at an annualized basis those to have an impact of somewhere in the range of a half to one percent of the clearing and transaction fees.”
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Figure
The company has executed over 350,000 contracts since launch, totaling about $3.5 billion of notional.
Source quote
“We've done a little bit over 350,000 contracts since launch, which is about $3.5 billion of notional.”
4 more
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Figure
More than 50% of demand for the company comes from outside the U.S.
Source quote
“And so that demand over 50% comes from outside the U.S.”
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Figure
CME reported 368 new products to date as of the third quarter of 2026.
Source quote
“We've had 368 new products here to date.”
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Figure
CME welcomed well over 100,000 new retail traders into its markets in this past quarter, and that was a 40% increase of where it was a year ago.
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Figure
The $650 billion U.S. sports value per year represents a community with an unmet need to manage risks and hedge operations related to venues and team performance.
Source quote
“When you think about the, if you read some of the reports, the $650 billion U.S. sports value per year, that that community largely has an unmet need to manage those associated risks, to hedge that related to the operation of venues, to the performance of that team.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 95% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Our strong year-to-date momentum reflects robust client demand across our global benchmark products and continued innovation to best serve our clients.”
“Beyond the strong volume growth, the underlying health of the business is perhaps best reflected in the strength of our open interest and the significant capital efficiencies we provide to...”
“This strong growth was broad-based as we achieved double-digit year-over-year volume growth in all six asset classes.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026not yet filed | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 1.71B | 1.54B | ||
| Operating income | — | 1.11B | 972.6M | ||
| Net income | — | 1.04B | 908.0M | ||
| EPS | — | 2.88 | 2.49 | ||
| P/E today 25.1 | — | 18.7 | — | 26.2 | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New CME also set a record for a number of large open interest holders in both its interest rates and foreign...
- New New clients joining CME's portfolio marketing program have really contributed to that savings.
- New Just to put that into perspective, in 2024 that swap savings number was around $7.2, $7.3 billion per day.
- Beyond the strong volume growth, the underlying health of the business is perhaps best reflected in the strength of CME's...
- CME's financial and commodity products volume each grew by 16%.
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped They may appeal to certain retail traders seeking high leverage, but they are not appropriate for the institutional risk managers...
- Dropped Perpetual futures are highly engineered instruments that rely on frequent funding rate adjustments that revert the position back to the...
- Fading Things like large events like the World Cup, you tend to see a bit of a shift.
- Fading CME had over 140,000 accounts that were trading event contracts this quarter.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
CME Group reported revenue of $1.7 billion and market data revenue of $243 million for the third quarter of 2026, which represents a 20% increase over the previous year.
- Articles or bylaws amended · SEC 8-K · routine
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
CME Group announced that Jack Tobin will become Chief Financial Officer in March 2027, while Matthew Render will succeed him as Chief Accounting Officer.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
CME Group Inc. communicated pricing changes to its clients via Special Executive Report No. 9799 on August 11, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
CME Group Inc. reported its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, including non-GAAP measures for revenue, operating income, and net income.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
CME Group announced that Lynne C. Fitzpatrick will succeed Terrence A. Duffy as Chief Executive Officer on March 1, 2027, following his transition to Executive Chairman.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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December 7th
launch of CME Securities Clearing
Source quote
“Looking ahead, we are on track for our December 7th launch of CME Securities Clearing in advance of the SEC's Treasury Clearing mandate.”
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late 2027
begin this cloud migration of our markets
Source quote
“The primary Chicago region continues to progress to plan and we expect to begin this cloud migration of our markets in late 2027.”
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November 9th
end of the extended comment period for the agency to make a decision on the product
Source quote
“As you know, they extended the comment period another 45 days, which ends, I believe, on November 9th.”
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December
expectation of the court being fully briefed on the substance of the case
Source quote
“And we are also gonna brief the substance of the case and expect it to be fully deported for the judge in December.”
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Q4
FCMs being fully up and running for the cross-margining program prior to the Treasury and repo clearing mandate
Source quote
“Many of them are targeting Q4 to be fully up and running for that cross-margining program prior to the Treasury and repo clearing mandate, but we're seeing strong growth there.”