FIX US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $1161.63 · 2026-11-11
Comfort Systems USA provides mechanical and electrical contracting services, including HVAC, plumbing, and electrical system installation and maintenance. The company serves the commercial, industrial, and institutional markets, including manufacturing, healthcare, and government facilities across the United States. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-19)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 22 Oct 2026 and 24 Jul 2026
Net income up 10.7% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
+10.7%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 489.0M vs 441.6M
Revenue +15.3%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +67.7%, so it is not just seasonal.
Why Against the same quarter last year (+67.7%), net income increased because revenue grew by $1.3 billion or 54% compared to last year, driven by 85% growth in electrical segment revenue and 43% growth in mechanical revenue.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
More upbeat than 62% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
The acquisition of two companies into the Comfort Systems USA family is expected to contribute over $100 million in annual revenue at good margins.
Valuation
Is Comfort Systems USA undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 20.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $1494.75 a share — the stock trades 22% below it. Today's price assumes 16.4% growth a year.
Current price
$1161.63
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+16.4% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$1494.75
Buy below
$1121.06
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 22%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 4%
Read between the lines
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Key theme
The acquisition of two companies into the Comfort Systems USA family is expected to contribute over $100 million in annual revenue at good margins.
Source quote
“We are thrilled to have these two companies join the Comfort Systems USA family of companies and expect that they will contribute over $100 million in annual revenue at good margins.”
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Guidance
The company estimates full-year CapEx will be 45% of revenue and expects to continue incurring CapEx at elevated levels during the first half of 2027.
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Figure
The reason that Comfort Systems USA continually win in the acquisition area, frequently buying companies at lower prices than other people are offering them, is because it has worked so hard to make Comfort Systems the best place…
Source quote
“And the reason that we continually win in the acquisition area, frequently buying companies at lower prices than other people are offering them, is because we have worked so hard to make Comfort Systems the best place on planet Earth for somebody who has made their life's work building a great contractor a home for their legacy.”
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Figure
Modular revenue stayed at 17% of total revenue because growth in the rest of the business matched growth in the modular segment.
Source quote
“And one other thing, too, and I'm sure I'm not telling you even you haven't already realized, but modular 17% of our revenue, it's growing but staying 17% because the rest of our business is also seeing really great demand as well.”
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Figure
Earnings per share rose to $13.91 this quarter, which is $5.66 more than the same quarter last year.
Source quote
“We earned $13.91 per share this quarter, which is $5.66 more than we earned in the same quarter last year.”
4 more
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Figure
Over a long period of time, Comfort Systems USA typically use, it has used 15% to 20% of its free cash flow to buy shares.
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Key theme
The one key thing about us is that if Comfort Systems USA has taken work, it means it has planned against every – labor planned against every dollar in that backlog.
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Key theme
The company has reported generating profit and free cash flow every year of its existence, positioning it to take advantage of favorable market conditions.
Source quote
“It's led to us making money every year of our existence, to us having free cash flow every year of our existence, to us being the best positioned when markets became great to really take advantage of it.”
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Key theme
Service profitability was stronger than ever this quarter, establishing service as a growing and reliable source of profit and cash flow.
Source quote
“Service profitability was stronger than ever this quarter and service remains a growing and reliable source of profit and cash flow.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Our mechanical business had an extraordinary increase in activity levels and profitability, and our electrical segment once again achieved spectacular organic revenue growth at very high margins.”
“Service profitability was stronger than ever this quarter and service remains a growing and reliable source of profit and cash flow.”
“As a result of continuing strong demand, we achieved an eighth consecutive sequential backlog increase.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.77B | 3.27B | +15.3% | 2.45B | +53.7% |
| Gross profit | 934.5M | 844.2M | +10.7% | 607.9M | +53.7% |
| Operating income | 624.6M | 558.0M | +11.9% | 378.9M | +64.8% |
| Net income | 489.0M | 441.6M | +10.7% | 291.6M | +67.7% |
| EPS | 13.91 | 12.53 | +11.0% | 8.25 | +68.6% |
| P/E today 22.0 | 35.7 | 48.8 | −13.1 | 35.0 | +0.7 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New Comfort Systems USA does know that things that have been driving them up are still apparent for it, and if anything, they're...
- You can read a detailed listing and commentary concerning Comfort Systems USA's specific risk factors in its most recent Form 10-K and...
- You were a large hyperscaler and you were laying your bets on which states you wanted to do work in,...
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Of course, a patient commitment to acquisitions is still a part of Comfort Systems USA's capital allocation conviction.
- Dropped Comfort Systems USA has told you that it would spend about 5% of its increasing revenues essentially, it boils down to buildings where...
- Dropped Comfort Systems USA is building this enormous installed base of these data centers across the country.
- Fading As mentioned before, Comfort Systems USA is entering the second half of 2026 with a backlog that is 69% higher on a...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
Comfort Systems USA reported revenue of $3.77 billion for the third quarter of 2026, up from $2.45 billion in 2025, with net income of $489.0 million compared to $291.6 million a year earlier.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Comfort Systems USA announced that Bill George will retire as Chief Financial Officer after 30 years, with Julie Shaeff promoted to the role.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
The company filed an investor presentation containing forward-looking statements and risk factors as of August 3, 2026.
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
Comfort Systems USA reported revenue of $3.27 billion for the second quarter of 2026, up from $2.17 billion in 2025, and net income of $441.6 million compared to $230.8 million a year earlier.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. announced that Craig Sasser will become Chief Operating Officer and Briston Blair will become Chief Strategy & Innovation Officer, both effective July 1, 2026.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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the remainder of 2026 and 2027
continuing growth and strong results
Source quote
“With solid bookings and great demand, we expect continuing growth and strong results for the remainder of 2026 and 2027.”
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shortly after we report our 2026 results
Bill transitioning from the CFO role
Source quote
“Bill will be transitioning from the CFO role shortly after we report our 2026 results.”
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full-year
same store revenue
Source quote
“and we expect full-year same store revenue will also be in the mid 40% range”
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full-year 2027
same store revenue
Source quote
“we estimate that our same store full-year 2027 revenue will grow in the mid 20% range”
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2027
gross profit margins
Source quote
“We currently expect that 2027 gross profit margins are likely to continue in the strong ranges that we've achieved in average over recent quarters.”