FirstEnergy (FE) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

The projected cash flow doesn't cover the debt, so the price is far above the model's fair value.

1. Guidance

   The company expects demand for a reliable grid to drive at least a 25% increase in its current 19 billion dollar transmission investment plan.

2. Guidance

   The company's five-year $36 billion investment plan will be financed with up to $2 billion of equity or equity-like securities through 2030.

3. Figure

   Core earnings rose to $0.98 per share from $0.83 a year ago due to growth from rates, investment programs, increased customer demand, financial discipline, and a lower effective tax rate.

   Source quote

   “Core earnings were $0.98 per share, compared with $0.83 a year ago, largely reflecting growth from our rates and investment programs, increasing customer demand, strong financial discipline, and a slightly lower effective tax rate.”

4. Figure

   The plan move forward will result in a 25% increase that has the exact same impact on the company's rate base.

   Source quote

   “So the 25% increase that we're talking about would have the exact impact, the same impact, on our own rate base as we move the plan forward.”

5. Figure

   Contracted and pipeline demand from data center companies increased nearly 60 percent since year-end, including a 90 percent increase in contracted demand.

   Source quote

   “We continue to see strong interest from data center companies, with contracted and pipeline demand up nearly 60 percent since year-end including a 90 percent increase in contracted demand.”

3 more

1. Figure

   The commission approved a $76 million inflation and investment adjustment filing in West Virginia, which impacts the company's base rate case.

   Source quote

   “And in West Virginia, we received a regulatory decision on our base rate case with the commission approving our $76 million inflation and investment adjustment filing as submitted.”

2. Key theme

   Manufacturing activity in the metals, oil, gas, and chemical sectors increased alongside growing demand for data centers.

   Source quote

   “We are seeing broad strength in manufacturing activity, including metals, oil and gas, and chemical sectors, along with increasing data center demand.”

3. Figure

   Management expects the figure to be in the 31, 32 timeframe based on current timing and existing backlogs.

   Source quote

   “So, it'll likely be in the 31, 32 timeframe, just given where we are in time today and where backlogs are.”

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 93% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“We remain on track to deliver core earnings growth near the top end of our 6% to 8% range through 2030 and have meaningful opportunities to increase earnings growth over...”

“In New Jersey, we filed our base rate case in August, requesting a rate increase of $253 million, which reflects approximately $1 billion in rate-based growth since our last increase...”

“Our track record positions us well to compete for additional investments as growing electricity city demand, and new generations drive the need for a stronger regional grid.”

Q3 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.