EFX US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Equifax (EFX) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $188.41 · 2026-11-11
Equifax is a data, analytics, and technology company that provides information solutions for businesses, governments, and consumers. The company offers services such as human resources automation, debt collection support, and credit monitoring across North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-19)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 20 Oct 2026 and 21 Jul 2026
Net income up 15.1% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
+15.1%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 211.7M vs 183.9M
Revenue −0.4%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +32.1%, so it is not just seasonal.
Why Against the same quarter last year (+32.1%), net income rose because of improved diversified markets revenue growth, strong cost management, and AI-driven productivity.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 52% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Equifax expects full-year 2026 U.S. mortgage revenue to be approximately $80 million below previous guidance as growth rates fell over 500 basis points since July.
Valuation
Is Equifax undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 5.8% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $123.34 a share — the stock trades 53% above it. Today's price assumes 10.3% growth a year.
Current price
$188.41
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+10.3% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$123.34
Buy below
$92.50
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 53%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 104%
Read between the lines
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Key theme
EFX expects free cash flow of over $1 billion in 2026 and cash conversion over 100%.
Source quote
“We continue to expect strong free cash flow of over $1 billion in 2026 and cash conversion over 100%.”
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Key theme
Workforce Solutions EBITDA margins were 51.4%, meeting expectations despite the revenue impact from a weaker mortgage market.
Source quote
“Workforce Solutions EBITDA margins of 51.4% were in line with our expectations despite the revenue impact from the weaker mortgage market.”
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Key theme
Equifax revenue for 2026 at the midpoint is now expected to be 6.661 billion dollars.
Source quote
“As a result, Equifax revenue for 2026 at the midpoint is now expected to be 6.661 billion dollars.”
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Guidance
Full-year 2026 U.S. mortgage revenue is expected to be $80 million below previous guidance due to growth rates falling over 500 basis points since July.
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Figure
Talent Solutions revenue grew over 20% in the quarter because of new products, increased penetration across incarceration and education data assets, and pricing.
Source quote
“Talent Solutions revenue grew a very strong over 20% in the quarter and continues to outperform a soft white-collar hiring market with growth in new products, increased product penetration across our incarceration and education data assets, and pricing.”
4 more
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Figure
Excluding FICO royalties, the USIS EBITDA margin rose to 42.4%, an increase of over 320 basis points compared to last year.
Source quote
“Excluding FICO royalties, USIS EBITDA margin was 42.4%, up over 320 basis points versus last year, and an outstanding performance.”
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Figure
Moderating rates could lead to a $1 billion revenue and $700 million margin upside along with a full mortgage market recovery.
Source quote
“And once rates moderate, there's a big $1 billion revenue and $700 million margin upside and a full mortgage market recovery.”
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Figure
Approximately 2,000 mortgage lenders now use Vantage 4 in their underwriting processes, an increase of 7x since April due to score choice being available to all U.S. mortgage lenders.
Source quote
“With score choice now available to all U.S. mortgage lenders, we're seeing a rapid adoption of Vantage 4 with about 2,000 mortgage lenders using Vantage score in their underwriting processes, up 7x since April.”
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Figure
Equifax launched a new offering allowing the mortgage industry to pull credit files with or without scores from Vantage Score 4, Classic FICO, or FICO Score 10T.
Source quote
“This new offering enables the mortgage industry to pull an Equifax mortgage credit file without a credit score or pull the mortgage credit file with the credit score they select for their mortgage banking needs, whether that score is Vantage Score 4, Classic FICO, or FICO Score 10T when it is approved.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“B2B revenue is up 5% with high single digit online growth in FI from stronger volumes, new business, and pricing, and mid-single digit online growth in auto from pricing and...”
“Our strong wins and renewals this year, along with continued strong deal pipelines, reinforces our confidence in the medium and long-term growth opportunities for EWS government, supporting states in meeting...”
“Our consumer direct business continued to deliver strong growth of 9% in the quarter from good subscriber growth in our direct channel and new business wins in our partner channel.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.69B | 1.70B | −0.4% | 1.54B | +9.6% |
| Operating income | 355.3M | 314.2M | +13.1% | 264.3M | +34.4% |
| Net income | 211.7M | 183.9M | +15.1% | 160.2M | +32.1% |
| EPS | 1.79 | 1.54 | +16.2% | 1.29 | +38.8% |
| P/E today 30.7 | 22.2 | 27.9 | −5.7 | 48.5 | −26.3 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Certain risk factors that may impact Equifax's business are set forth in its filings with the SEC, including its 2025...
- Productive, given the strong value proposition from TWIN on speed of social service delivery, caseworker productivity, and accuracy of…
- Further, Equifax has seen strong engagement from states converting to subscription-based contracts that provide more certainty of spending…
- Equifax also has several large new federal opportunities in its deal pipeline.
- On this basis, 4Q26 mortgage revenue is down about $60 million versus Equifax's July guidance.
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading Equifax is continuing to have really strong success in the government vertical.
- Fading Equifax delivered very strong margin performance, driving strong EPS growth of 13%.
- Fading Organic diversified markets constant dollar revenue grew about 5.5% in the quarter and better than Equifax's expectations, principally in…
- Fading Equifax's guidance reflects improved share performance in mortgage as well as continued good performance in diversified markets, offsetting…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Equifax reported third-quarter revenue of $1.693 billion, up 10% year over year, and returned $158 million in cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Equifax Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement on July 22, 2026, for the issuance of $500,000,000 of 5.000% Senior Notes due 2029 and $500,000,000 of 5.650% Senior Notes due 2033.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Equifax reported second-quarter revenue of $1.700 billion, up 11% compared to the same period last year, and announced a $750 million agreement to acquire Círculo de Crédito.
- Articles or bylaws amended · SEC 8-K · routine
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
Equifax Inc. entered into the Fourth Amendment to Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent on April 23, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Equifax reported first-quarter revenue of $1.649 billion, up 14% compared to the first quarter of 2025, with net income of $171.5 million rising 29% year over year.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Equifax reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.551 billion, up 9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-24.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$192.9M
2026-09-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -4.7% YoY, -0.9% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 124.1M |
| Q2 2025 | 124.0M |
| Q3 2025 | 123.1M |
| Q1 2026 | 120.0M |
| Q2 2026 | 118.4M |
| Q3 2026 | 117.3M |
Shares outstanding: 117.0M (2026-10-09)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 55 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
140.7K shares
$25.9M · 31 transactions
Bought by insiders
2.4K shares
$464.9K · 1 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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fourth quarter
Circulo deal expected to close
Source quote
“Share-of-purchases moderated in the quarter at $92 million with a Circulo deal expected to close in the fourth quarter, bringing year-to-date repurchases to about $650 million on 3.6 million shares or 3% of shares outstanding.”
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2026
expected strong free cash flow of over $1 billion
Source quote
“We continue to expect strong free cash flow of over $1 billion in 2026 and cash conversion over 100%.”
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fourth quarter
execute the circular to credito acquisition
Source quote
“With our financial capacity of over $1.5 billion, we can execute the circular to credito acquisition in the fourth quarter and continue to repurchase shares while maintaining a strong balance sheet.”
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as we exit to 2026 and in 2027
expect strong record growth from W-2 based records and alternative record sources
Source quote
“We expect strong record growth as we exit to 2026 and in 2027 from W-2 based records, as well as alternative record sources like Pension, Gig, and 1099, with significant potential for record additions with 250 million income producing Americans against our 110 million unique SSNs in the twin data set at the end of the quarter.”
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in 2027
benefit to Workforce Solutions government vertical
Source quote
“an extremely strong result that will principally benefit our Workforce Solutions government vertical in 2027.”