COF US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Capital One (COF) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $197.11 · 2026-11-11
Capital One is a financial services holding company that provides credit cards, debit cards, bank lending, and payment processing services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels and physical locations in the United States and internationally. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-19)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 20 Oct 2026 and 21 Jul 2026
Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
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No financial figures for this pair
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 65% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Figure
Quarter purchase volume grew 11% year over year, primarily driven by growth in legacy Capital One purchase volume.
Valuation
Is Capital One undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $80.91 a share — the stock trades 144% above it. Today's price assumes 21.6% growth a year.
Current price
$197.11
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+21.6% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$80.91
Buy below
$60.68
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 144%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
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Figure
Linked quarter revenue increased 3%, and non-interest expense declined 2%, resulting in pre-provision earnings growth of 10%.
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Figure
Consumer banking revenue for the quarter was up about 17% year over year, driven predominantly by Discover Revenue synergies and growth in auto loans.
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Figure
In the third quarter, Capital One earned $3.5 billion, or $5.61 per diluted common chair.
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Figure
Capital One's third quarter net interest margin was 8.41%.
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Figure
The domestic card charge-off rate for the third quarter was 3.98%, down 73 basis points from the prior quarter, and down 65 basis points year over year.
4 more
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Figure
Capital One's year-to-date results reflect about $1.8 billion of annualized combined synergies, primarily driven by the successful debit conversion early in 2026 and the pace of achieving expense synergies.
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Guidance
Looking ahead, Capital One expects to lean harder into marketing in 2027, driven by several factors.
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Figure
The commercial criticized performing loan rate was 4.4%, down four basis points compared to the linked quarter.
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Figure
As of the end of September, 100% of Discover card originations are on Capital One's tech stack.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“In closing, third quarter results continued to reflect solid top-line growth and strong credit performance.”
“Revenue increased 6% from the linked quarter with strong growth in non-interest income.”
“The allowance build was primarily driven by strong growth in the auto business, partially offset by an improved outlook for vehicle values.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026not yet filed | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 15.85B | 15.36B | ||
| Operating income | — | 3.82B | 4.38B | ||
| Net income | — | 3.02B | 3.19B | ||
| EPS | — | 4.73 | 4.83 | ||
| P/E today 11.6 | — | 10.6 | — | 73.3 | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New Session, the investor relations team will be available after the call.
- Capital One believes that there is substantial competition in the payments industry already with banks like Capital One taking a big...
- What Capital One continues to see is a very strong...
- Capital One has various resilience metrics it does.
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped I hope the overall objective function of Capital 1 is not the maximization of ROTCE in the near term.
- Fading With all the moving pieces, Capital One has chosen to focus its conversation on earnings power...
- Fading As Capital One saw Discover card outstandings were down 1.5% year over year.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
As of September 30, 2026, Capital One reported net charge-offs of $260,252 million for domestic credit cards and $92,901 million for auto loans.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Capital One reported net income of $3.5 billion for the third quarter of 2026, compared to $3.2 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Capital One Financial Corporation filed a Form 8-K on September 15, 2026, regarding its common stock, preferred stock series, and 1.650% senior notes due 2029.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Capital One Financial Corporation will present at the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference on September 16, 2026, at 12:00 p.m. ET.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Capital One Financial Corporation reported net charge-offs of $260,642 million for domestic credit cards and $91,886 million for auto loans for the month ended August 31, 2026.
- Articles or bylaws amended · SEC 8-K · routine
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Capital One will redeem all 1 million outstanding shares of its Series M Preferred Stock at $1,000 per share on September 1, 2026.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-11-08.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$4.95B
2026-09-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -4.7% YoY, -1.9% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 383.1M |
| Q2 2025 | 505.6M |
| Q3 2025 | 639.0M |
| Q1 2026 | 622.5M |
| Q2 2026 | 620.5M |
| Q3 2026 | 608.9M |
Shares outstanding: 601.5M (2026-09-30)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 101 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
242.2K shares
$49.5M · 45 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling