AXP US S&P 500DJIARussell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording

American Express (AXP) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

Share price: $323.11 · 2026-11-11

American Express provides card-issuing, merchant-acquiring, and card network services to consumers and businesses globally. The company offers credit and charge cards, banking products, and payment processing solutions across various international markets. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-06)

Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 23 Oct 2026 and 24 Jul 2026

Net income up 19.4% on the previous quarter. Management sounded upbeat, in its script and in answers to analysts.

1 · Numbers

+19.4%

Net income vs Q2 2026

Outlook given

Net income 3.71B vs 3.11B

Revenue +0.2%

Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +27.9%, so it is not just seasonal.

Why Against the same quarter last year (+27.9%), net income rose primarily because revenue grew 9% year-over-year driven by stable customer behavior and accelerated net card fee growth, while operating expenses decreased by 3% year-over-year.

2 · How management spoke

Upbeat

More upbeat than 66% of company calls

Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.

Last call it was different: the answers were more upbeat than the script.

3 · What stood out

American Express reaffirmed its revenue growth guidance of 10% and raised its EPS guidance to between 1830 and 1860 on a reported basis.

Valuation

Is American Express undervalued?

Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.

At 6.5% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $291.38 a share — the stock trades 11% above it. Today's price assumes 7.9% growth a year.

Current price

$323.11

close of 2026-11-11

Market implies growth of i

+7.9% for 10 yrs

Fair value / share

$291.38

Buy below

$218.54

Price vs fair value

Overvalued 11%

Price vs buy-below price

Overvalued 48%

Management expects

Revenue +10% · from the Q3 2026 report: “American Express reaffirmed its revenue growth guidance of 10% and raised its EPS guidance to between 1830 and 1860 on a reported basis.”

A guidance figure for revenue, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.

FCF growth / yr i Discount rate i Terminal growth i Margin of safety i

Official channels

The company's own website and social media accounts.

Read between the lines

Guidance

American Express reaffirmed its revenue growth guidance of 10% and raised its EPS guidance to between 1830 and 1860 on a reported basis.
Key theme

American Express took a $336 million restructuring charge in the quarter to eliminate approximately 5% of its positions globally.

Source quote
“As a result, we took a $336 million charge for restructuring in the quarter, which is expected to result in the elimination of approximately 5% of our positions globally.”
Figure

American Express reported record revenues of $20 billion, up 9%, and earnings per share of $5.42 reported and $4.68 on an adjusted basis for the quarter.

Source quote
“We had another strong quarter with record revenues of $20 billion of 9% and EPS of $5.42 reported and $4.68 on an adjusted basis.”
Figure

The company is on track to deliver 10% revenue growth and mid-team DPS growth.

Source quote
“We are on track to deliver another year of 10% revenue growth and mid-team DPS growth.”
Figure

Revenue increased 9% year-over-year and net card fee growth accelerated to 17% effects adjusted due to stable customer behavior.

Source quote
“The strength and stability in customer behavior drove revenue up 9% year-over-year, with net car fee growth accelerating to 17% effects adjusted.”

4 more

Figure

American Express returned $2.2 billion of capital to shareholders in Q3, consisting of $1.6 billion in share repurchases and $0.6 billion in dividends.

Source quote
“In Q3 specifically, we return $2.2 billion of capital to shareholders, including $1.6 billion of share repurchase and $0.6 billion of dividends.”
Key theme

The company expects an increase in deals with smaller to mid-sized banks with specific entities rather than larger deals with big banks.

Source quote
“And so we will continue to see, I believe, more and more of those deals be done, not bigger deals with big banks, but probably some smaller to mid-sized banks with specific entities.”
Key theme

American Express plans to use AI to create more personalized and differentiated value by combining proprietary insights, partner relationships, and membership experiences.

Source quote
“AI gives us the opportunity to take our value propositions much further, combining the proprietary insights from our closed loop, our partner relationships, and access to membership experiences to create entirely new forms of value that are more personalized and differentiated than ever before.”
Key theme

American Express is integrating AI with proprietary data to identify prospects, match relevant products, and create personalized shopping, product application, and onboarding experiences.

Source quote
“By combining AI and our proprietary data, we can better identify the right prospects, match them with relevant products and offers, and create more personalized shopping, product application, and onboarding experiences.”

Tone

How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesi. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.

Prepared remarks Upbeat (was cautious)

Answers to analysts Typical (was very upbeat)

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“We've got good momentum, but to accelerate innovation and win over the next few years, we needed to become a more agile and efficient organization.”

“strong and consistent spend growth, especially in the T &E categories, balanced growth in line with spend, high retention rates, and excellent credit performance.”

“As expected, we've seen an acceleration in growth to 17% FX adjusted this quarter, supported by the very strong results we've seen on the U.S.”

Full figures

USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)

Metric	Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30	Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30	Change	Q3 2025	YoY
Revenue	11.23B	11.21B	+0.2%	10.41B	+7.8%
Operating income	4.53B	4.07B	+11.3%	3.83B	+18.5%
Net income	3.71B	3.11B	+19.4%	2.90B	+27.9%
EPS	5.42	4.53	+19.6%	4.14	+30.9%
P/E today 18.1	17.1	20.5	−3.4	22.3	−5.2

Topics

Most discussed now

With the closing of the global business travel transaction in the quarter, American Express is dropping two-thirds of the gain to...
Adjusting for the global business travel group gain and the restructuring charge, EPS was $4.68, up 13% year-over-year.
New As far as the Visa MasterCard settlement, American Express is going to have to see how that all plays out.
These are based in management current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainties.
Adjusted EPS includes an expense for legal matters, which includes the unreserved portion of the recently announced civil money...

Faded since Q2 2026

Fading I'm just going to downgrade vice versa, as a matter of fact, I was saying earlier on that American Express has seen...
Fading American Express expects to see impacts from the sale of the 2 small business core brand portfolios.
Fading The majority of deposits come from American Express' card members, deepening their...
Fading When you think about its company, American Express has got international business, U.S.

Latest announcements

Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.

2026-10-30 Other events · SEC 8-K
2026-10-23 Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
American Express reported Q3 2026 revenue of $20.1 billion, up 9% year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share of $5.42, up 31% from $4.14 in the same period last year.
2026-10-15 Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
As of September 30, 2026, total U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card balances held for investment were $160.9 billion, with a net write-off rate of 1.6% for the three months ended September 30.
2026-10-08 Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
American Express Company and its affiliates consented to regulatory orders regarding financial crimes compliance, with American Express National Bank agreeing to pay a $350 million civil money penalty to the OCC.
2026-09-15 Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
As of August 31, 2026, total U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card balances held for investment were $160.3 billion, with a 1.1% delinquency rate for consumer cards and 1.3% for small business cards.
2026-08-17 Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
As of July 31, 2026, total U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card balances held for investment were $159.2 billion, with net write-off rates of 1.7% and 2.6% respectively.
2026-08-12 Change to shareholder rights; Articles or bylaws amended; Other events · SEC 8-K
American Express Company issued 1,600 shares of 6.450% Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Preferred Shares, Series E, with a liquidation preference of $1,000,000 per share on August 12, 2026.
2026-08-05 Other events · SEC 8-K
American Express announced a proposed public offering of depositary shares representing a 1/1,000th interest in a new series of Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Preferred Shares, Series E, with a par value of $1.66 2/3.

Balance sheet & ownership

From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-28.

Cash & runway

Cash & equivalents

$3.67B

2026-09-30

Short-term investments

$240.0M

total $3.91B

Implied runway

—

operating cash flow positive over the TTM window

Dilution

weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -2.7% YoY, -0.7% QoQ.

Quarter	Shares
Q1 2025	701.0M
Q2 2025	698.0M
Q3 2025	692.0M
Q1 2026	685.0M
Q2 2026	678.0M
Q3 2026	673.0M

Shares outstanding: 670.6M (2026-10-15)

Insider transactions

Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 82 filings; 50 filings parsed.

Sold by insiders

119.6K shares

$41.8M · 15 transactions

Bought by insiders

23 shares

$4.1K · 7 transactions

Net direction

net selling

Catalyst calendar

management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.

full year 2026

impact of the fine from the OCC

Source quote
“the fine does not impact our full year 2026 guidance”
2027

impact of the cost associated with remediation

Source quote
“and the cost associated with remediation are not anticipated to affect 2027 guidance”
another year

10% revenue growth and mid-team DPS growth

Source quote
“We are on track to deliver another year of 10% revenue growth and mid-team DPS growth.”
Q4

VCE growth to moderate significantly as they fully lock the Platinum refresh

Source quote
“Looking ahead, we expect VCE growth to moderate significantly in Q4 as we fully lock the Platinum refresh.”
2027

Impact of additional costs on guidance

Source quote
“The ongoing investments are in our run rate, and we do not expect the additional cost to impact our 2027 guidance.”