AGNC Nasdaq Earnings call
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $8.48 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 21 Jul 2026 and 21 Apr 2026
Net income turned to a profit from a loss last quarter. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
Turned profit
Net income vs Q1 2026
Net income 654.0M vs -148.0M
Why Against the same quarter last year (turned to a profit), net income increased primarily because mortgage outperformance relative to interest rate hedges and the solid performance of Agency MBS generated a positive excess return to U.S. treasuries.
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 81% of company calls
Answers to analysts: cautious, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
AGNC's economic return on tangible common equity was 6.7% for the quarter, consisting of $0.36 in dividends and a $0.20 increase in tangible net book value per share.
Valuation
Is AGNC Investment Corp. undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (the standard assumption), the model's fair value is $29.35 a share — the stock trades 71% below it. Today's price assumes −8.4% growth a year.
Current price
$8.48
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
-8.4% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$29.35
Buy below
$22.02
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 71%
Price vs buy-below price
Undervalued 61%
Read between the lines
-
Figure
Economic return on tangible common equity was 6.7% for the quarter, consisting of $0.36 in dividends and a $0.20 increase in tangible net book value per share from mortgage outperformance.
Source quote
“Our economic return on tangible common equity was 6.7% for the quarter, consisting of $0.36 of dividends declared per common share and a $0.20 increase in tangible net book value per share due to mortgage outperformance relative to our interest rate hedges.”
-
Figure
The weighted average coupon on the portfolio increased to 5.04% in Q2 2026.
Source quote
“As a result, the weighted average coupon on our portfolio increased to 5.04%.”
-
Figure
AGNC generated a 6.7% economic return from a monthly dividend and improvement in tangible book value per common share despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Source quote
“Despite the elevated geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, and the bearish shift in fixed income sentiment during the quarter, AGNC generated a strong economic return of 6.7%, comprised of our attractive monthly dividend and improvement in our tangible book value per common share.”
-
Figure
The overall portfolio allocation to swap-based hedges declined to 66% at quarter end following the maturity of $3 billion of swap hedges and additional treasury-based hedges.
Source quote
“With the maturity of $3 billion of swap hedges and the additional treasury-based hedges, our overall portfolio allocation to swap-based hedges declined to 66% at quarter end.”
-
Key theme
Tangible book value improved because Agency MBS generated a positive excess return to U.S. treasuries for the fifth consecutive quarter.
Source quote
“The improvement in our tangible book value was driven by the solid performance of Agency MBS, which generated a positive excess return to U.S. treasuries for the fifth consecutive quarter.”
3 more
-
Key theme
The final rule for Basel and new capital regulations will likely resemble the proposed rule, which is good for mortgages.
Source quote
“With respect to the Basel and the new capital regs that have come out for proposal, from what we're hearing, the final rule will likely look very much like the proposed rule, which is good for mortgages.”
-
Key theme
AGNC adopted a disciplined, opportunistic approach to capital raising to manage its capital structure.
Source quote
“We take a very disciplined, opportunistic approach to capital raising.”
-
Figure
The GSEs are expected to have about $120 billion of purchase activity going forward.
Source quote
“Going forward, what we know, I believe the GSEs still have about $120 billion of purchase activity.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“The decrease primarily reflects a 6 basis point decline in our net interest spread driven by lower asset yields from portfolio repositioning, partly offset by modestly lower funding costs.”
“Lastly, with the outlook for private credit deteriorating and equity valuations stretched by many measures, the demand for high-quality fixed income assets should remain strong or perhaps even increase over...”
“The 2 challenges are we do have elevated geopolitical risk, which is causing volatility in the market, all financial markets.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 654.0M | -148.0M | Turned profit | -140.0M | Turned profit |
| EPS | 0.52 | -0.17 | Turned profit | -0.17 | Turned profit |
| P/E today 439.0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | −2.4 | 30.6 | −25.2 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- AGNC Investment's total stock return for the quarter was even more favorable at 12.3% with dividends reinvested, which brings its 1-year...
- New Notable, the monthly common stock dividend that AGNC Investment paid at the beginning of this month marked the 75th consecutive...
- With ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions were the…
- Bank reserves are at like $3 trillion, and they have now a $6.4 trillion balance sheet.
- You're right, there is a task force on that.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Dropped In January and February, the administration's focus on reducing interest rate volatility, maintaining mortgage spread stability and…
- Fading All those will go to inform us as to what the right the right leverage level is.
- Fading To your point about specified pools, AGNC Investment obviously still are in this environment very focused on managing prepayment exposure.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
AGNC Investment Corp. reported a comprehensive loss of $1.28 per common share for the third quarter of 2026, with tangible net book value per share of $7.13, down 16.9% from $8.58 in June 2026.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
AGNC Investment Corp. amended Gary Kain's employment agreement to include a target annual cash bonus of $1,300,000 for 2027 and annual long-term incentive awards valued at $1,500,000 starting in 2027.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
AGNC Investment Corp. reported a tangible net book value of $8.58 per common share as of June 30, 2026, which increased 2.4% from $8.38 per share on March 31, 2026.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
AGNC Investment Corp. implemented a new at-the-market common stock issuance program with an aggregate offering price of up to $2,000,000,000.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
AGNC Investment Corp. reported a comprehensive loss of $0.18 per common share and a tangible net book value of $8.38 per common share, which decreased by $0.50 from December 31, 2025.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
AGNC Investment Corp. reported $1.74 comprehensive income per common share for the full year 2025, with a tangible net book value of $8.88 per share as of December 31, 2025.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
AGNC Investment Corp. increased its Board size from nine to ten members and appointed Morris A. Davis as a director and member of the Compensation and Corporate Governance Committee effective January 12, 2026.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-13.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$457.0M
2026-06-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: +13.8% YoY, +3.1% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 807.2M |
| Q1 2025 | 918.3M |
| Q2 2025 | 1.02B |
| Q3 2025 | 1.05B |
| Q1 2026 | 1.12B |
| Q2 2026 | 1.16B |
Shares outstanding: 1.19B (2026-07-30)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. 39 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
1.2M shares
$14.2M · 19 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
-
this year
net new supply of Agency MBS
Source quote
“With the primary mortgage rate continuing to be above 6.5%, the net new supply of Agency MBS this year will likely drop to about $150 billion, materially lower than the supply estimates at the beginning of the year.”
-
this year
MBS runoff from the Fed's portfolio
Source quote
“As a result, MBS runoff from the Fed's portfolio will be lower than expected this year.”
-
over the remainder of the year
Banks, foreign investors and REITs as net purchasers of Agency MBS
Source quote
“Banks, foreign investors and REITs should also all continue to be net purchasers of Agency MBS over the remainder of the year.”
-
over the near term
demand for high-quality fixed income assets
Source quote
“Lastly, with the outlook for private credit deteriorating and equity valuations stretched by many measures, the demand for high-quality fixed income assets should remain strong or perhaps even increase over the near term.”
-
in the second half of the year
benefit Agency MBS performance from favorable supply and demand dynamics
Source quote
“We expect these favorable supply and demand dynamics to become more apparent over time and to benefit Agency MBS performance in the second half of the year.”