Tauron (TPE) · H1 2026 results and valuation

At −2.3% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is 3.66 zł a share — the stock trades 147% above it. Today's price assumes 3.3% growth a year.

1. Figure

   In the first half of 2026, EBITDA, EBIT, and net profit margins were 21.4%, 13.5%, and 9.1%, respectively, falling by 3.0, 3.8, and 2.8 percentage points over 2025.

   Source quote

   “EBITDA, EBIT, and net profit margins in the first half of 2026 were 21.4%, 13.5%, and 9.1% respectively and were lower than in the same period of 2025 by 3.0 p.p., 3.8 p.p., and 2.8 p.p. respectively”

2. Guidance

   The forecast for BASE electricity prices for open positions assumes a 1.7% increase for 2026 compared to the volume-weighted average reference contract price obtained in 2025.

3. Figure

   Costs for first-half 2025 CO2 emission allowances increased by 35% to 1,948 million PLN, contributing the most significant impact to the overall cost growth.

4. Figure

   The net debt/EBITDA ratio was 1.2 as of June 30, 2026, meaning the covenant was met.

   Source quote

   “As of June 30, 2026, the net debt/EBITDA ratio was 1.2, and therefore the covenant was met.”

5. Figure

   The company has the option to issue sustainability-linked or green bonds for up to 3,000 million PLN as part of the Program.

   Source quote

   “Under the Program, the Company has the opportunity to issue sustainability-linked bonds or so-called green bonds, up to a maximum amount of 3,000 million PLN, whereby the issue value and type of bonds will be determined each time at the time of the decision to issue.”

2 more

1. Figure

   Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. accounted for 86% of total costs incurred in transactions with state-owned companies during the six months ended June 30, 2026.

   Source quote

   “Regarding the costs incurred in connection with transactions with State-owned companies in the six-month period ended June 30, 2026, the largest counterparty of TAURON Polska Energia S.A. was Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. (86% of the total costs incurred in purchase transactions with State-owned companies).”

2. Figure

   On July 29, 2026, the Company signed a loan agreement with the European Investment Bank for 1,120 million PLN.

   Source quote

   “After the balance sheet date, on July 29, 2026, a loan agreement in the amount of 1,120 million PLN was signed between the Company as the borrower and the European Investment Bank as the lender.”

Typical for a company report — about as upbeat as in H1 2025. Periodic reports carry legally required risk wording, so their tone moves little and is a weak signal.

Sentences that drove the tone

“A significant risk is the risk of failing to achieve the target volume and planned margin on the sale of electricity, resulting from both increasing competition and macroeconomic factors, such as fluctuations in energy demand, slowdown...”

“Actively seeking technical and organizational solutions to minimize the potentially adverse impact of activities”

“The aim of the package is to accelerate the development of necessary energy infrastructure in Europe (grid investments, RES, energy storage, charging stations).”