SAIC (SAIC) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At −2.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $80.51 a share — the stock trades 90% above it. Today's price assumes 3.9% growth a year.

1. Guidance ↑

   Revenue guidance lifted to $7.25 billion even though sales from current operations are expected to shrink 2% or stay flat.

   Source quote

   “We are raising our revenue guidance by 2% to a midpoint of $7.25 billion reflecting organic contraction of 2% to flat.”

2. Guidance ↑

   Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised 4% at the midpoint, implying margins of 10.3% to 10.5%, or 20 basis points above prior guidance.

   Source quote

   “We are also raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance by 4% at the midpoint implying margins of 10.3% to 10.5% or 20 basis points above our previous guidance.”

3. Last period

   SAIC reported free cash flow of $118 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.23, with net leverage decreasing to 3.1x.

   Source quote

   “Free cash flow was $118 million in the quarter, a strong result as we remain focused on maintaining our peer... Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $3.23 in the quarter, benefiting from better margins and a lower share count. Net leverage, is within our target range, down to 3.1x this quarter.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“We also believe our base is more secure with a recompete win rate of over 90% in this quarter creating an easier path to on contract growth and building momentum...”

“As we previously mentioned, we are transforming our enterprise to build a stronger, more agile company that supports growth oriented investments and sustained margin improvement.”

“Combined with last quarter's successful DHS recompete, this latest win extends our long standing role in delivering innovation with an integrated software-hardware solution to secure our country's borders.”