Rayonier (RYN) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At −18.9% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $0.67 a share — the stock trades 3137% above it. Today's price assumes 5.1% growth a year.

1. Key theme

   More stringent site requirements and due diligence for data center development mean these opportunities will take longer to materialize compared to previous requirements.

   Source quote

   “But needless to say, the site requirements and the due diligence for data center development are even more stringent than what we see... ...to purchase maybe a few hundred acres for the actual data center footprint, other developers looking for several thousand acres for data center co-located power and perhaps even a buffer zone to address community concerns. So these types of opportunities are invariably going to take longer to materialize.”

2. Guidance

   RYN updated its guidance to expect full year harvest volumes of 12.2 million to 12.5 million tons for the Southern Timber segment.

   Source quote

   “With respect to our individual segments, starting with our Southern Timber segment, we expect to achieve full year harvest volumes of 12.2 million to 12.5 million tons, with anticipated...”

3. Guidance

   RYN expects an adjusted EBITDA contribution of $25 million to $35 million in the third quarter based on the current transaction pipeline and sales closed quarter-to-date.

   Source quote

   “Based on our current transaction pipeline and sales closed quarter-to-date, we expect an adjusted EBITDA contribution in the third quarter of $25 million to $35 million.”

4. Dropped

   The team is focusing on implementing best practices and making progress as a result of everyone working together.

   Source quote

   “And the team is really focused on implementing best practices as we move forward. But again, we're making good progress there as well. Again, it's been really encouraging to see how everybody is working together.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“In our Real Estate segment, we are pleased by the continued momentum in our sales activity and maintain a healthy pipeline of rural and improved development land sale opportunities as...”

“South will continue to gain market share from Canada and gradually increase production in response to a more favorable lumber pricing environment, which should support stronger sawlog demand within our...”

“As we discussed in the past, the bar for external growth, I'd say, is pretty high right now given the opportunity that we see in buybacks.”