LRCX US S&P 500NASDAQ-100Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Lam Research (LRCX) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $235.88 · 2026-11-11
Lam Research is a global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company provides products for manufacturing memory, logic devices, and components for electronic products like mobile phones and automotive vehicles. It operates in the United States, Asia, and Europe. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-08-07)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · fiscal Q1 2027 · published 21 Oct 2026 and 29 Jul 2026
Net income up 20.9% on the previous quarter. Management sounded very upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
+20.9%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 2.75B vs 2.28B
Revenue +22.3%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +75.5%, so it is not just seasonal.
Why Against the same quarter last year (+75.5%), net income rose primarily due to record gross margins from a favorable customer and product mix, increased sales volume, and operating leverage as the business scales.
2 · How management spoke
Very upbeat
More upbeat than 91% of company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, but clearly less so than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Lam Research increased its expected cumulative Ether-related revenue by $1 billion to approximately $2.5 billion by the end of the decade.
Valuation
Is Lam Research undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2026-06-28), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $95.76 a share — the stock trades 146% above it. Today's price assumes 22.6% growth a year.
Current price
$235.88
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+22.6% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$95.76
Buy below
$71.82
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 146%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Revenue +40% · from the Q3 2026 report: “LRCX expects calendar year 2026 systems revenue to grow well over 40% year-on-year when including the midpoint of December quarter guidance.”
A guidance figure for revenue, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
LRCX increased its expected cumulative Ether-related revenue by $1 billion to approximately $2.5 billion by the end of the decade.
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Guidance
LRCX expects calendar year 2026 systems revenue to grow well over 40% year-on-year when including the midpoint of December quarter guidance.
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Key theme
CSBG annual revenue is expected to grow more than 30% year over year for calendar year 2026.
Source quote
“And finally, turning to CSBG, we are set to exit calendar year 2026 with solid momentum, with annual revenue expected to grow more than 30% year over year.”
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Key theme
LRCX expects revenue of $8.6 billion plus or minus $400 million for the quarter.
Source quote
“We're expecting revenue of $8.6 billion plus or minus $400 million.”
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Figure
Gross margin, operating margin, and EPS reached new highs, with the operating margin exceeding 40% for the first time.
Source quote
“Gross margin, operating margin, and EPS all reached new highs, with operating margin topping 40% for the first time.”
4 more
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Guidance
The preliminary 2027 WFE outlook is for more than $200 billion of spending, with percentage growth led by DRAM, followed by leading-edge foundry logic and NAND.
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Figure
Free cash flow reached a record $3.24 billion in the September quarter.
Source quote
“The September quarter was also a record for our free cash flow, coming in at $3.24 billion in the quarter.”
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Figure
Revenue for memory reached a record level on a dollar basis, increasing 120% compared to the same period in 2025.
Source quote
“On a dollar basis, this represented a record level for memory, and it was up 120% from the same period in 2025.”
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Figure
The company grew systems 35% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2027, a growth rate the speaker noted they had not seen in a previous quarter.
Source quote
“I don't think I've ever seen a quarter where you grew systems 35% Q1Q so kudos on that.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 86% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“We are gaining share in this expanding Backside Power SAM opportunity and recently secured tool of record wins for all four products at a leading customer.”
“Given our customer engagement, install base growth, and technology leadership, we expect to achieve panel level packaging market share that surpasses the strong position we already hold in current wafer...”
“And as I mentioned last quarter, we've been increasing our cash levels a little bit to support growing business volumes as well as capital investments in this growing demand environment.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-27)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-27 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-28 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.22B | 6.72B | +22.3% | 5.32B | +54.4% |
| Gross profit | 4.30B | 3.48B | +23.6% | 2.68B | +60.1% |
| Operating income | 3.28B | 2.51B | +30.6% | 1.83B | +79.5% |
| Net income | 2.75B | 2.28B | +20.9% | 1.57B | +75.5% |
| EPS | 2.19 | 1.81 | +21.0% | 1.24 | +76.6% |
| P/E today 29.9 | 47.0 | 65.8 | −18.8 | 28.3 | +18.7 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Lam Research's performance throughout the year reflects the broad strength of its product portfolio and a relentless focus on operational…
- This grew primarily due to increased sales volume, and it was partially offset by a decrease in customer down payments.
- Lam Research was pleased with its continued strong execution in the September quarter, resulting in its fifth consecutive quarter of…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading It's not just the short-term things like promos and the macro, but Lam Research is building more durable engines of net deposit...
- Dropped Lam Research is making sure it continues to innovate overseas in some areas, but otherwise, with Robinhood Earn and...
- Dropped For the centralized brokerage offerings, Lam Research did get the approval in Singapore.
- Dropped Some of them like Indonesia will get direct licensure depending on just where Lam Research sees opportunity to go even deeper...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Shareholder vote results; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Sohail U. Ahmed and Michael R. Cannon will retire from the Board of Lam Research Corporation on November 2, 2026, reducing the number of directors from 12 to 10.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Lam Research Corporation issued a press release on July 29, 2026, regarding its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Lam Research Corporation issued a press release on April 22, 2026, regarding its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2026.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Lam Research announced that Dr. Anirudh Devgan, the current CEO of Cadence Design Systems, has joined its board of directors.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Change to shareholder rights; Director or officer change; Articles or bylaws amended; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
On November 4, 2025, stockholders approved a new 2025 Stock Incentive Plan and an amendment to the Certificate of Incorporation to limit the liability of certain officers under Delaware law.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-11.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$5.58B
2026-06-28
Short-term investments
$2.57B
total $8.15B
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -2.7% YoY, -0.4% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 1.30B |
| Q4 2024 | 1.29B |
| Q1 2025 | 1.28B |
| Q3 2025 | 1.26B |
| Q4 2025 | 1.25B |
| Q1 2026 | 1.25B |
Shares outstanding: 1.25B (2026-08-04)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 52 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
659.0K shares
$168.7M · 66 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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2026
outlook for adjusted OpEx and SBC
Source quote
“So we're lowering and tightening our 2026 outlook for adjusted OpEx and SBC to a range of $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion.”
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in the year to come
add even more $100 million ARR businesses
Source quote
“As we build out a family of financial apps, we plan to add even more $100 million ARR businesses in the year to come.”
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over the fullness of a year or even longer
growth of net deposits
Source quote
“And then over the fullness of a year or even longer, we should be growing at about 20%.”
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over the next 10 years
10x the business
Source quote
“But what we've said before is we believe we can 10x the business over the next 10 years, and that's through a lot of the vectors Vlad shared.”
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near to medium term
more than the majority or a good portion will flow through Rothera
Source quote
“And then in terms of the flow, what we've shared is you should expect in the near to medium term, more than the majority or a good portion will flow through Rothera.”