KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) · H1 2026 results and valuation

At 2.4% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is 223.40 zł a share — the stock trades 29% above it. Today's price assumes 5.6% growth a year.

1. Figure

   Revenue from customer contracts increased by 7,067 million PLN compared to the first half of last year, primarily due to 8,330 million PLN in higher copper, silver, and gold prices.

   Source quote

   “The increase in revenue from contracts with customers compared to the first half of the previous year by PLN 7,067 million was primarily driven by: – an increase in revenue of PLN 8,330 million due to higher copper, silver, and gold prices”

2. Figure

   Total costs in the first half of 2026 were higher by 5,038 million PLN compared to the first half of 2025 due to higher third-party input costs and mining taxes.

   Source quote

   “In the first half of 2026, total costs by category compared to the first half of 2025 were higher by PLN 5,038 million, with higher costs of foreign input consumption by PLN 2,301 million (higher purchase price by 29% and higher consumption volume by 23 thousand t Cu) and a higher tax on the extraction of certain minerals by PLN 1,979 million due to the increase in copper and silver prices.”

3. Figure

   C1 costs in the first half of 2026 were 2.44 USD/pound, a 23% decrease from the same period last year due to higher byproduct pricing.

   Source quote

   “C1 cost in H1 2026 amounted to 2.44 USD/pound and was lower than in the same period of the previous year by 23%. The decrease in cost results from the higher valuation of by-products.”

4. Figure

   Electrolytic copper production increased by 19.1 thousand tons compared to the same period last year, reaching a total of 291.5 thousand tons in domestic assets.

   Source quote

   “Compared to the same period last year, there was an increase in the production of electrolytic copper by 19.1 thousand t.”

5. Key theme

   Optimization initiatives resulted in an EBITDA improvement of approximately 300 million PLN by the end of the first half of 2026 compared to 2024 results.

2 more

1. Figure

   Labor costs increased by 617 million PLN, or 21%, which included a 473 million PLN estimate for annual bonus reserves, contributing to a 758 million PLN rise in specific costs.

   Source quote

   “The increase in production costs excluding foreign inclusions and the mining tax on certain minerals increased by 758 million PLN and resulted from: – higher labor costs by 617 million PLN, +21% (of which 473 million PLN represents the estimation of the provision for annual bonuses)”

2. Figure

   Lower Cu content in ore and a decrease in Cu recovery in Robinson were the main reasons for lower payable copper production in the KGHM INTERNATIONAL LTD.

Typical for a company report — more upbeat than in H1 2025. Periodic reports carry legally required risk wording, so their tone moves little and is a weak signal.

Sentences that drove the tone

“The risk of changes in electricity and energy commodity prices constitutes a commodity risk for the Dominant Entity, the measurement of which is conducted based on its impact on cash flows.”

“Strengthening and developing competencies — Ensuring the financial stability and business potential of the Group — Optimizing operations and developing the potential of the domestic companies of the Capital Group”