CMG US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $36.64 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 29 Jul 2026 and 29 Apr 2026
Net income up 33.3% on the previous quarter. Management sounded cautious, though noticeably more positive answering analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+33.3%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 403.5M vs 302.8M
Revenue +8.4%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is −7.5%, so the move on last quarter looks seasonal or timing-related rather than a trend.
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: very upbeat, and more positive than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
The evidence does not provide a specific number or metric for the updated revenue guidance, so the change cannot be summarized.
Valuation
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 11.4% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $30.47 a share — the stock trades 20% above it. Today's price assumes 13.9% growth a year.
Current price
$36.64
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+13.9% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$30.47
Buy below
$22.85
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 20%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 60%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
CMG anticipates Q3 cost of sales just under 30% as menu pricing will offset sequentially higher avocado prices.
Source quote
“For Q3, we anticipate cost of sales to be just under 30% as sequentially higher avocado pricing will be offset with menu pricing.”
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Figure
CMG's second-quarter revenue grew 9.3% to $3.3 billion, with positive comparable sales and transactions showing growth came from customer demand.
Source quote
“For the second quarter, we delivered revenue growth of 9.3% to $3.3 billion, including positive comparable sales and transactions.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Management was more positive answering analysts than in its script — usually a sign it was comfortable with the details it was asked about.
Sentences that drove the tone
“And then we're building additional transaction growth drivers through, I talked about, menu innovation, deeper Rewards engagement, stronger brand communication and expanded group occasions.”
“It's exciting to see our Recipe for Growth strategy continue to gain momentum this quarter, and we know there is significant opportunity ahead.”
“So traffic in the second quarter really improved throughout the quarter, and we're really encouraged by the momentum that is building as we continue to execute on our Recipe for...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.35B | 3.09B | +8.4% | 3.06B | +9.3% |
| Operating income | 525.6M | 397.1M | +32.4% | 559.1M | −6.0% |
| Net income | 403.5M | 302.8M | +33.3% | 436.1M | −7.5% |
| EPS | 0.32 | 0.23 | +39.1% | 0.32 | ±0% |
| P/E today 28.6 | 31.5 | 29.4 | +2.1 | 49.7 | −18.2 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Chipotle Mexican Grill is pleased with the strength of its second quarter results, which were driven by continued positive transaction…
- Chipotle Mexican Grill's Recipe for Growth strategy is creating multiple levers to drive transactions, improve execution and reinforce the…
- As a reminder, comparisons become more difficult in the third quarter as Chipotle Mexican Grill laps increased promotional activity in the…
- You're going to see new items come on to the calendar in the coming months ahead and us revisit tried...
- Chipotle Mexican Grill is building additional transaction growth drivers through, I talked about, menu innovation, deeper Rewards…
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading What Chipotle Mexican Grill found is it was able to widen the funnel, bring more users into the funnel, reactivate lapsed consumers...
- Fading Other initiatives like the Chipotle Kitchen, things like the GM Assistant, avocado on the hiring side, all those hours are...
- Fading The energy was incredible as Chipotle Mexican Grill celebrated their achievements, reinforced its commitment to developing world-class…
- Fading Although Chipotle Mexican Grill is trending higher than its guidance as its initiatives continue to gain traction, its guidance reflects a…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K