Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

At 13.6% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $133.20 a share — the stock trades 315% above it. Today's price assumes 34.0% growth a year.

1. Key theme

   In closing, the third quarter was an outstanding quarter for AMD with record revenue, significant operating margin expansion.

   Source quote

   “In closing, the third quarter was an outstanding quarter for AMD with record revenue, significant operating margin expansion, and earnings... We are now expecting our fourth quarter share count to be impacted by customer warrants. As our data center business continues to scale, we are very well positioned to drive increased profitability and the long-term shareholder value.”

2. Guidance

   Advanced Micro Devices now expects data center segment revenue growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter and full year segment revenue to more than double from 2025.

3. Figure

   Revenue increased 45% year-over-year to $13.4 billion, driven by record Epic and Instinct sales and strong embedded growth.

4. Fading

   Gross margin for the quarter expanded to 56%, up over 200 basis points year-over-year and 80 basis points sequentially, reflecting a favorable product mix…

   Source quote

   “Gross margin for the quarter expanded to 56%, up over 200 basis points year-over-year and 80 basis points sequentially, reflecting a favorable product mix... ...per share increased approximately 82% year-over-year, significantly outpacing our revenue growth and demonstrating our earnings power as we scale our business. Operating expenses were $3.4 billion, an increase of 40% year-over-year as we continue to invest in R&D to expand our AI silicon systems and software capabilities to support our long-term growth opportunities....”

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 84% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Overall when you put the whole business model together, what you should expect us to do is significant top-line revenue growth, significant gross profit expansion, and OPEX growing less-time revenue...”

“Adaptive design wins have increased every year since we acquired DesignLinks, with embedded X86 and semi-custom wins growing even faster.”

“In closing, the third quarter was an outstanding quarter for AMD with record revenue, significant operating margin expansion, and earnings growth, reflecting discipline execution across the business.”