American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $8.01 a share — the stock trades 640% above it. Today's price assumes 38.7% growth a year.

1. Guidance

   Deal flow is very heavy compared to last year, attracting many groups and serving as the big driver.

   Source quote

   “This shift directly reflects Trilogy's continuing focus on alignment with payor sources, especially Medicare Advantage plans, that value quality outcomes... ...improvement in quality mix, which now stands at 75.5% of resident days on a same-store basis, up roughly 60 basis points from a year ago, and up 200 basis points on a total portfolio basis. Trilogy's clinical reputation is what earns its strong census, and we continue to invest in maintaining and...”

2. Key theme

   AHR expects most or all of the volume to close before year-end but included none of it in guidance, leaving room for results to beat the outlook.

   Source quote

   “We've seen a lot of groups that are coming out basically attracted We are seeing a lot of deal flow compared to even last year, where we started to see a pretty strong uptick -- and this year has just been very heavy. So I'd say that's pretty much the big driver.”

3. Guidance

   Quality mix reached 75.5% of resident days, continuing Trilogy trends the company expects to see.

   Source quote

   “We expect to close most, if not all, before the end of the year, but none of this volume is reflected in our guidance.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Our capital markets discipline has given rise to strong offensive capability, positioning us to pursue our most attractive acquisition and development opportunities from a position of financial strength.”

“This company is strong, the strategy is delivering industry-leading results and the senior leadership team is exceptional.”

“As our standing with operators has continued to strengthen materially and as our balance sheet has become an even stronger foundation for seizing opportunities, more of the right opportunities are...”