AGNCO Nasdaq Earnings call
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCO) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $25.16 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 21 Jul 2026 and 21 Apr 2026
Net income turned to a profit from a loss last quarter. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
Turned profit
Net income vs Q1 2026
Net income 654.0M vs -148.0M
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 81% of company calls
Answers to analysts: cautious, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Figure
With primary mortgage rates continuing above 6.5%, this year's net new Agency MBS supply will likely be affected.
Valuation
Is AGNC Investment Corp. undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (the standard assumption), the model's fair value is $29.35 a share — the stock trades 14% below it. Today's price assumes 7.3% growth a year.
Current price
$25.16
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+7.3% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$29.35
Buy below
$22.02
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 14%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 14%
Read between the lines
-
Fading
Tangible net book value per common share rose approximately 6% for April, which is an increase from the $0.18 comprehensive loss per common share reported in the first quarter.
Source quote
“Our economic return on tangible common equity was negative 1.6% for the quarter, consisting of $0.36 of dividends declared per common... For the first quarter, AGNC reported a comprehensive loss of $0.18 per common share. As of late last week, our tangible net book value per common share was up approximately 6% for April or 5% net of our monthly dividend accrual.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“The decrease primarily reflects a 6 basis point decline in our net interest spread driven by lower asset yields from portfolio repositioning, partly offset by modestly lower funding costs.”
“Lastly, with the outlook for private credit deteriorating and equity valuations stretched by many measures, the demand for high-quality fixed income assets should remain strong or perhaps even increase over...”
“The 2 challenges are we do have elevated geopolitical risk, which is causing volatility in the market, all financial markets.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 654.0M | -148.0M | Turned profit | -140.0M | Turned profit |
| EPS | 0.52 | -0.17 | Turned profit | -0.17 | Turned profit |
| P/E today 12.5 | 12.6 | 19.5 | −6.9 | 84.7 | −72.1 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New Notable, the monthly common stock dividend that AGNC Investment paid at the beginning of this month marked the 75th consecutive...
- New The decrease primarily reflects a 6 basis point decline in AGNC Investment's net interest spread driven by lower asset yields from...
- New The second, which I also believe sort of deteriorated is the outlook for monetary policy and it deteriorated in the...
- Despite the elevated geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, and the bearish shift in fixed income sentiment during the quarter, AGNC…
- The improvement in AGNC Investment's tangible book value was driven by the solid performance of Agency MBS, which generated a positive...
Faded since Q1 2026
- Dropped In January and February, the administration's focus on reducing interest rate volatility, maintaining mortgage spread stability and…
- Dropped AGNC Investment's quarter-over-quarter results also benefited from reduced compensation expense as its fourth quarter results included…
- Fading All those will go to inform us as to what the right the right leverage level is.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K